Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector index fell. From April 4, 2022 to April 8, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.20%, and the light industry manufacturing index fell 1.36%, ranking 14th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The index of light industry fell from high (- 0.01%) to low (- 0.01%) and the index of household packaging industry fell (- 0.01%) respectively.
Furniture: continue to prompt the valuation and repair opportunities of the home sector. In terms of domestic sales of furniture, 1) the marginal relaxation trend of real estate policy is obvious. Since the beginning of 2022, more than 60 cities have introduced stable real estate policies. From relaxing loan requirements, reducing mortgage interest rates to liberalizing the purchase and sale restrictions, the real estate easing policy has been increasing. Judging from the real estate sales data this week (2022 / 4 / 4-2022 / 4 / 9), the effect of urban relaxation has not yet been reflected, but we emphasize that the proportion of home demand released by stock houses and old transformation continues to increase, and the correlation between home industry demand and new house sales has decreased; With the continuous change of traffic structure, the evolution of leading retail capacity has led to the continuous improvement of concentration; 2) This round of epidemic may have a certain impact on the sales performance of the furniture industry in the first half of 2022. From the situation of orders received by household enterprises in March, the growth of orders received by head household enterprises in the face of the disturbance of the epidemic is still good. Due to the impact of the epidemic from March to April, logistics and door-to-door services are not smooth, resulting in income recognition or delay. The demand for furniture renewal and upgrading caused by lagging demand and home isolation is expected to be fully released in the future, which has a limited impact on the performance of the whole year of 2022. Leading risk resistance is strong, small and medium-sized brands are accelerated to clear due to the impact of the epidemic, and the industry concentration is expected to be further improved. In the follow-up, we believe that under the stable growth, the marginal easing of real estate policy is expected to increase, and the leading enterprises are expected to continuously improve their market share with their own alpha, so there is more room for valuation repair. Continue to recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] management improvement and retail under the whole strategy is expected to accelerate; At the same time, it is recommended to be the pioneer of retail reform, [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], the increasingly clear route of large home furnishing, [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], the consolidation of the leading position of overall high growth, [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], the smooth expansion of independent brands and [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] and the functional sofa leading [Minhua holding] with low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of export sales, China US economic and trade relations may be improved. It is recommended that the dilemma can be reversed. Under anti-dumping, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], the scarcity of us production capacity layout is gradually realized. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) ], which drives high income growth and has strong bargaining power.
E-cigarette: the industry supervision is advancing steadily, and we are optimistic about the orderly development of the e-cigarette industry. 1) Update of overseas regulatory trends: on April 8, 2022 local time, FDA announced that it had issued a marketing refusal order (MDO) for the myblu series of products of fontemus, a subsidiary of Imperial Tobacco; 2) Update of China’s regulatory dynamics: on April 2, 2022, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued four documents, including several policies and measures on regulating the development of e-cigarette industry (for Trial Implementation), as well as matters related to the application of e-cigarette enterprises for production, wholesale and retail licenses. We believe that the acceleration of e-cigarette industry regulation in China and the United States and the continuous standardization of the industry are conducive to the medium and long-term healthy development of Chinese e-cigarette manufacturing enterprises. We continue to recommend [smore international]; It is recommended to focus on brand and user volume advantage, which is expected to be extended, and closely cooperate with China tobacco, and distribute the flavors and fragrances and Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) with high valuation.
Papermaking: the first is [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], and the profitability of head paper enterprises is gradually restored. In terms of price, as of April 8, 2022, the price of wood pulp was 7005.7 yuan / ton, up 26 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of carton board paper was 4859 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 23 yuan / ton; The price of corrugated paper was 3806.3 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 19 yuan / ton; The price of white cardboard was 6385 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of white board paper is 5067.5 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 13 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of double copper paper was 5680 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of double offset paper was 6237.5 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 13 yuan / ton. The high cost of pulp promotes the rise of the price of cultural paper, the impact of double reduction and the new capacity in 2021q4 is gradually digested, and the profitability of cultural paper is expected to hit the bottom. It is recommended that [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]: the valuation has a margin of safety, the forest area of Laos base continues to grow, and the cost advantage and risk resistance are improved under the integration of Forest Pulp paper.
Risk tip: power rationing policies affect production capacity, raw material prices fluctuate, and Sino US trade frictions intensify,
