Event overview:
China Automobile Association released the production and sales data of passenger cars in March. The sales volume of narrow passenger cars in March was 1.819 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 1.2% and a month on month increase of + 23.5%; The output was 1.845 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 0.6% and a month on month increase of + 22.3%.
In 2022q1, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 5.448 million, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%; The cumulative output was 5.399 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 10.5%.
Analysis and judgment:
The wholesale performance is stable and the terminal demand is supported
Wholesale performance is stable, and the short-term supply chain is expected to be under pressure. In March, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles was 1.819 million, a year-on-year increase of - 1.2%. The cumulative wholesale sales volume in 2022q1 was 5.448 million, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%. The wholesale sales volume of 2022q1 is the highest in the same period of recent four years, and the sales center has improved. Considering the long automobile manufacturing industry chain and the large distribution of parts in East China, if the epidemic in Shanghai continues, it will disturb the supply chain in the short term.
The retail end is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the medium-term demand is supported. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars in March was 1.579 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 10.5% and a month on month increase of + 25.6%. The cumulative retail sales volume in 2022q1 was 4.914 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.7%. Compared with 2021q4, the terminal discount of fuel vehicles was slightly liberalized, which boosted the demand. We believe that the overall demand has strong support. On the one hand, electric intelligence has strong product power and continues to pry demand; On the other hand, the current discount rate is still low. If the discount is further liberalized, it is expected to accelerate the sales transformation of wait-and-see phenomenon.
Q2 is an important time point for rapid replenishment of channel inventory. According to the wholesale - Insurance - export, the channel inventory will be removed more in 2021, reaching 661000 vehicles. In 2021q4, due to the flat performance of terminals, the inventory increased by 459000 vehicles in a single quarter. From January to February this year, the channel inventory increased by 22000 vehicles. In March, due to the disturbance of the epidemic, it is expected to increase the channel inventory by 300000 vehicles. We judge that with the improvement of chip supply, the channel inventory is expected to be replenished quickly. Superimposed Q2 is the traditional off-season, which is expected to be key to the establishment of inventory for the main engine factory.
New energy performed well and its monthly penetration rate exceeded 25%
The performance of new energy is brilliant and the penetration rate continues to break through. In March, 461000 new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, with a year-on-year increase of + 117.5% and a month on month increase of + 43.5%. The penetration rate of new energy in a single month reached 25.3%. The cumulative sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022q1 reached 1201000, a year-on-year increase of + 145.3%. The overall new energy penetration rate in 2022q1 has reached 22.1%.
The annual number of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to exceed 5.3 million, and the plug-in and mix increment will be released rapidly. In 2022q1, the sales of pure electricity and plug-in hybrid were 954000 and 247000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 133.5% and + 202.7% respectively. The cost of raw materials continued to rise, most new energy vehicle enterprises started price adjustment, and the phenomenon of short-term wait-and-see increased. We believe that medium - and long-term growth will iron out short-term fluctuations, and the core is still driven by product power. According to our prediction, the total number of new energy passenger vehicles this year is expected to exceed 5.3 million, and the structure will gradually transition from "dumbbell type" to "spindle type". There is an obvious trend that class A and B plug-in hybrid vehicles will accelerate to replace fuel vehicles of the same level. It is expected that the total proportion of class A and b new energy passenger vehicles this year will reach 60% (the total proportion of class A and B passenger vehicles in 2021 will exceed 75%).
Rapid export growth, independent and gradual rise
Exports grew rapidly, and the journey of domestic products overseas accelerated. The strength of domestic passenger cars continues to improve, and the overseas journey continues to speed up. In 2021, the export of narrow passenger cars reached 1.56 million, a year-on-year increase of + 112.7%. The marginal growth continued. In March this year, the export of passenger cars (including crossover) was 121000, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.8% and a month-on-month increase of - 17.1%. The cumulative export of passenger cars in 2022q1 reached 452000, with a year-on-year increase of + 61.9%. We believe that with the continuous improvement of domestic strength and the trend of electric intelligence, overseas sales are expected to grow rapidly.
The independent share has increased rapidly and is expected to rise in reform. According to the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of independent passenger vehicles in March reached 904000, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.5%, and the market share reached 48.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.8pct. In 2022q1, the market share of autonomous passenger cars reached 45.9%, with a year-on-year increase of +4.6pct. Among them, Xiaopeng, Byd Company Limited(002594) , and ideal grew rapidly. The sales volume of 2022q1 reached 35000, 292000 and 32000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 333.4%, + 177.0% and + 152.1% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
The demand for passenger cars is relatively stable, and the performance of new energy is bright. The supply chain has been disturbed in the short term, waiting for capacity recovery. We expect the sales volume of passenger cars to recover after the epidemic is relieved, firmly optimistic about the independent rise, and realize the upward brand and market share increase through reform. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], and the beneficiary [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order. Rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flat, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
Smart electric change will bring about brand power and product power Resha. Car companies are constantly adding smart and electric configurations, and hoping to achieve brand upward: best acoustic - [[6885 Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], interior - [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ] Platform type - [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ]. The dual carbon pressure superimposed electric vehicle weight reduction drives the improvement of endurance. The vehicle has a wide space for lightweight. It is recommended to [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], and the beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tips
Chip supply shortage; The impact of the epidemic continues; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
