Event: on April 11, 2022, the central bank released financial data for March. In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year; Financial institutions increased by more than RMB 13.0 trillion year-on-year; M1 + 4.7%, M2 + 9.7%.
The year-on-year increase in social finance is the result of short loan impulse + base effect. In March 2022, social finance increased by 1.27 trillion year-on-year, mainly in three areas: loans + 0.48 trillion, off balance sheet + 0.43 trillion and government bonds + 0.39 trillion. After careful dismantling of the structure, it is found that there is still no significant recovery in financing demand, and social finance is "empty and fat". On this basis, the growth rate of social finance increased from + 0.4pct to 10.6% month on month, and the growth rate of RMB loans increased from + 0.1pct to 11.3% month on month.
With corporate short-term loan + bill impulse, it remained the same until March. From January to March 2022, the two items of corporate short-term loans + bill financing increased by 0.75 trillion, 0.65 trillion and 0.91 trillion respectively year-on-year. For medium and long-term corporate loans, January and March were the same as the same period last year. Due to the decrease of 0.59 trillion in February, Q1 increased less as a whole, and the demand improved month on month, but it was not obvious. The trend of low year-on-year growth of residents' medium and long-term loans from January to March has not changed, with - 0.20 trillion, - 0.46 trillion and - 0.25 trillion respectively, indicating that despite the intensive introduction of local real estate support policies, housing sales in March are still depressed. For banks, smooth credit expansion can boost revenue.
Government bonds increased year-on-year for six consecutive months, due to the factor of base. First, the issuance pace of special bonds this year is ahead. Second, the issuance progress from January to March last year was slow, and the issuance progress by the end of March was only 1%. In contrast, it is easy to increase. This growth trend is expected to continue until April and may. The issuance of corporate bonds was relatively flat, ending the trend of increasing for four consecutive months, and the net increase was basically the same as that in the same period in 2021.
The off balance sheet pressure drop is lower than that of last year, which also constitutes a year-on-year increase. In 2021, the total pressure drop of financing trusts was 1.3 trillion. The 20% pressure drop target set at the beginning of this year was 0.7 trillion, about half of that of last year. Trust loans decreased net every month last year. In March this year, trust loans increased by 13.3 billion yuan, so they increased year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: the first quarterly report is "stable", and steady growth still needs to be made
For banks: 1) loan growth picked up, indicating that the performance of the first quarter report was "stable"; 2) Real estate sales have not yet bottomed out, and we can still look forward to the incremental policy. The valuation repair can be continued, and two main lines continue to be recommended: high expansion city farmers and businessmen look at Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , high-quality stock banks look at Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) .
Risk tip: the steady growth policy is not as expected; Deterioration of asset quality; The impact of the epidemic has put pressure on the economy.
