Core summary
Automobile production and marketing are greatly affected by uncertain factors such as the epidemic situation in the short term. In March, affected by the epidemic, the automobile supply chain and production were greatly impacted. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of the automobile industry in March 2022 was 2.234 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control and supply chain, many auto enterprises are currently in the state of shutdown, which is expected to have a great impact on auto production and sales in April. In March, the prosperity of new energy vehicles continued, with sales of 484000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times. Several key new energy vehicle enterprises maintained rapid growth. Affected by the outbreak of the epidemic and the demand for overdraft of new energy vehicle prices, it is expected that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in April may be under pressure.
Tesla vs Byd Company Limited(002594) , supply chain and production capacity will become the key to global new energy sales. The two car companies have lofty green dreams. Byd Company Limited(002594) electric technology has a deep accumulation and Tesla has a high degree of intelligent vertical integration. At present, Tesla’s average price and profitability are temporarily ahead of Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile business. In 2021, Tesla became the world’s new energy vehicle sales champion with 936000 units, and Byd Company Limited(002594) sales reached Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) units, ranking second in the world. Recently, Tesla’s Berlin plant and Texas plant have been put into operation, which will provide important capacity guarantee for Tesla’s growth in 2022. Tesla will achieve at least 50% growth in 2022, reaching a sales volume of 1.4 ~ 1.5 million units Byd Company Limited(002594) recently announced the suspension of the sale of pure fuel vehicles. In 2022, a number of new energy vehicles were listed. At present, the order in hand has reached about 400000 units, and the annual sales target is 1.5 million units. The sales volume of 1q22 of the two car companies is close, and the supply chain and production capacity will become the key points to determine who will win the global new energy sales.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about car companies with rich matrix of hybrid models and fast landing speed of intelligent products. We strongly recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK), Geely Automobile (0175. HK), Xiaopeng automobile (9868. HK) and ideal automobile (2015. HK); Recommend suppliers Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , benefiting from the increasing penetration of electric smart vehicles; In terms of battery materials, we strongly recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Software defines vehicle acceleration, and the demand for software and hardware services such as domain controller and intelligent vehicle operating system will grow rapidly. It is strongly recommended to Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) .
Risk tips: 1) uncertain factors such as epidemic situation have a great impact on automobile supply chain; 2) The price rise of new energy vehicles leads to the sales volume of new energy vehicles falling short of expectations; 3) The high-end new energy brand building of automobile enterprises is not successful; 4) The penetration rate of high-end smart cars is lower than expected.
