Key investment points
Data overview
In March 2022, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion, an increase of 1.28 trillion year-on-year; The balance was + 10.6% year-on-year and the growth rate was + 0.4pc month on month. RMB credit increased by 3.13 trillion, an increase of 395.1 billion year-on-year, and the balance was + 11.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate unchanged month on month. The growth rate of M2 was 9.7%, and the growth rate was + 0.5pc month on month; M1 grew by 4.7%, unchanged month on month.
Core view
The source of credit exceeded expectations in January and March—— Corporate financing increased significantly, and the structure was slightly better than expected
In March, the credit increment significantly exceeded the market expectation, which was close to our prediction by coincidence again (the error was controlled within 30 billion for the second time this year); The structure was slightly better than the market expectation, and the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased slightly compared with the same period. The increase of social finance mainly depends on credit and government bonds. Unexpected sources:
(1) credit subject level: the recovery of corporate credit demand exceeded expectations. ① From the perspective of loans, short-term loans of enterprises increased by 434.1 billion year-on-year in March, medium and long-term loans increased by 14.8 billion year-on-year, and the increment of medium and long-term loans hit a record high, which was better than market expectations. This shows that the steady growth policy has made efforts to drive the marginal repair of public credit demand. ② From the perspective of bills, bill financing and non attached bills increased by 471.2 billion and 258.2 billion respectively year-on-year. The billing behavior showed an improvement trend both year-on-year and month on month, indicating that the business activities of the enterprise have recovered to a certain extent.
(2) from the perspective of bank type: it is speculated that state-owned banks are still the main force of credit increase in March, while the investment of joint-stock banks has changed from less increase to more increase in the previous two months, which also shows the marginal improvement of credit demand.
2. What do you think of the follow-up credit and social finance—— Pay special attention to the impact of the epidemic situation and the impact of policies on it
Looking forward to the credit in April, there is a high probability that the credit increment will be flat year-on-year. (1) At present, the main pressure point is that the epidemic affects the needs of residents and the commencement of enterprises. From mid to late March, the risk of epidemic in various places began to rise. (2) The impact of policy is expected to increase. On the one hand, under the downward pressure of the economy, the national Standing Committee has clearly released the overweight signal of steady growth on April 6, and the direction of wide credit will continue; On the other hand, the demand side of real estate has improved slightly due to the implementation of urban policies. (3) In the same period of 2021, the high base effect of residential mortgage loans gradually subsided.
Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, it is expected that the credit easing will continue, and the growth rate of social finance is expected to continue to pick up. Maintain the judgment that social finance increased by 33.2 trillion in the whole year and the balance increased by 10.6% year-on-year. In terms of rhythm, it is expected that the growth rate of q2-3 social finance will continue to rise, and then the marginal growth rate of Q4 will fall due to the base effect.
3. How to treat the banking sector—— Steady growth = buy a bank and ride a donkey to find a horse. The donkey will become wider. Credit is expected to further develop and continue to recommend the banking sector. Ride a donkey and look for a horse. Maybe a donkey will become a horse. Take advantage of the callback to actively buy, and the first is Societe Generale / Ping An / Nanjing.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and substantial exposure of adverse.
