Event:
On April 11, 2022, the central bank released the financial statistics of March:
(1) m2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of February;
(2) M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, which was the same as that at the end of February;
(3) RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion, an increase of 395.1 billion year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.4%;
(4) social financing increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1283.5 billion year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the end of February.
Comments:
I. at the end of March, the high-profile credit delivery has a strong "policy driven" feature. In the future, we will pay attention to whether there is "living beyond our means"
In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion, an increase of 395.1 billion year-on-year. Q1 added a total of 8.34 trillion, an increase of 663.6 billion year-on-year. According to the consistent expectation of wind, the average value of new RMB loans in March was about 2.6 trillion. The actual data is significantly higher than the market expectation. There may be two main reasons for this prediction deviation: ① considering the great impact of the epidemic in March and the poor performance of high-frequency indicators mapping various macroeconomic indicators, the market believes that the prosperity of credit supply in March is low based on linear extrapolation thinking. ② In early March, the credit supply was weak, and the "impulse" of credit supply had not been turned on, resulting in the "distortion" of prediction information.
Since this year, the prediction of credit supply can not avoid the "window guidance" of narrow credit scale, which is the "direct monetary policy tool" regulated by the central bank. At the time point of the beginning of the year, all banks will submit the annual credit supply plan to the central bank, while the central bank will issue narrow credit indicators on a quarterly basis and provide window guidance in due time according to the credit supply. Especially in the context of the increasing demand for "stable growth", when bank credit needs to play the "counter cyclical" regulation function, the policy driving force will be further amplified. The deviation between credit supply and economic prosperity is more obvious in Q1 this year.
We have observed that the downward pressure on the economy has not decreased since the beginning of the year, and the problem of insufficient financing demand of the real economy is more prominent. Under the repeated impact of the epidemic, some residents and enterprises showed signs of "recession" in their balance sheets. Against the background of high base last year, Q1 credit and social finance increased by 663.6 billion and 1.8 trillion respectively year-on-year, showing typical counter cyclical regulation characteristics. The deviation between credit activities and economic prosperity is largely a policy driven effect. The purpose is to guide banks to increase credit supply and avoid entering a negative cycle of "economic downturn - prudent risk preference of micro subjects - weakening demand - credit contraction - further increase of economic downward pressure".
To sum up, there are two characteristics of credit supply in March, which can better confirm the impact of insufficient demand + policy driven:
First, the rhythm is "low in the front and high in the back". Q1's monthly credit supply rhythm has the characteristics of "low in the front and high in the back". Even at the "good start" time point in January, the credit supply is still poor in the working days after new year's day. In the first ten days of March, affected by the decline in the impulse of bills and non bank loans at the end of February and the insufficient scale of new loans, the new RMB loans of some banks showed a deep negative growth. However, under the guidance of narrow credit scale, credit supply starts from the middle of the month, and the "impulse" at the end of the month is more significant. Considering the fierce competition pattern of Q1 core deposits and the sharp rise of interbank certificate of deposit interest rate, banks also have the demand of "offsetting deposits" through centralized credit at the end of the first quarter, which is finally reflected in the year-on-year increase in the total amount of credit in a single month in March.
Second, the loan interest rate decreased significantly. In the case of insufficient effective demand, policy driven banks to increase credit supply will aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand in the credit market, resulting in the decline of loan interest rate. Since the beginning of this year, the interest rate of newly issued corporate loans has decreased by more than 1y-lpr quotation, which is expected to reach about 10bp. According to the data of rong360, the mainstream loan interest rate of the first house in 42 cities across the country decreased by 11bp month on month in March, and the mortgage loan interest rate showed a continuous downward trend; Consumer loans and other retail non mortgage loan interest rates also fell to a certain extent. Credit pricing has typical buyer's market characteristics, and the proportion of credit supply priced by LPR point reduction has further increased.
This year, affected by the "triple pressure" of the economy and the downturn of real estate sales, the policy driven Q1 credit increased significantly year-on-year, which may consume a lot of project reserves. Although various policies have been pushed forward this year and the remaining amount of local government special bonds has been issued within the year, under the disturbance of the epidemic, the efficiency of fund use and the formation rate of physical workload are not high. Follow up attention: first, the formation of physical workload of infrastructure, and it is expected that the stable investment policy in infrastructure will continue to be "strengthened in time"; Second, it is expected that the reserves of follow-up projects of large state-owned banks are OK, but small and medium-sized banks need to pay attention to whether there is a phenomenon of "living beyond their means", resulting in the decline of credit supply in April.
II. Large state-owned banks continue to give play to the "head geese effect", and the margin of joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks has improved
The institutional differentiation of credit granting in March still exists, but it is improved compared with January February:
(1) it is expected that policy banks and large state-owned banks will continue to play the "head goose effect". In March, the credit supply continued the characteristics of institutional differentiation from January to February, that is, the credit supply boom of policy banks and large state-owned banks was relatively higher. It is estimated that the new RMB loans of large state-owned banks increased by 30-50% year-on-year in March. Some banks may be higher, and the new scale is close to that in January.
(2) marginal improvement of credit supply of joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks. Affected by the insufficient project reserves and the weak financing demand of the real economy, as well as the insufficient ability of small and medium-sized banks to serve large enterprises, high pricing and upside down cost-benefit, the credit supply is significantly weaker than that of large state-owned banks, especially in the loan pricing of high-quality enterprises. From January to February, the credit supply of joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks was generally weak, and the new RMB loans increased less year-on-year in a single month. In March, the credit rhythm of joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks was more obvious than that of large state-owned banks. The momentum at the end of the month was large. The new RMB loans of some joint-stock banks increased significantly year-on-year in March, and the situation of less increase year-on-year from January to February was changed.
The credit supply of urban rural commercial banks is still uneven. The credit supply of high-quality urban rural commercial banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is booming, but there is also a certain supply pressure under the influence of the epidemic. Urban and rural commercial banks in non Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions still increased less year-on-year, but the range was improved compared with that from January to February.
III. The performance of credit supply structure is poor, and the impulse of corporate short-term loan + bill financing is obvious
Although more than 3 trillion yuan of new credit was added in March, the structure performed poorly, mainly as follows:
First, the impulse of corporate short-term loans is more obvious. In March, corporate short-term loans increased by 808.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 434.1 billion. Q1 added a total of 2.23 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.03 trillion, accounting for 26.74% of all new RMB loans, an increase of about 11 percentage points compared with Q1 in 2021. This reflects that the financing demand of the real economy of banks, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, is relatively weak, and the pressure of "asset shortage" of credit supply is large. At the end of the month, the impulse of public and short-term loans is large, which can not only meet the narrow credit control requirements of the central bank, but also help to derive deposits and improve the pressure of deposit loan ratio at the "331" time point.
Second, bill financing is still on the high side. In March, bill financing increased by 318.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 471.2 billion, and Q1 increased by 802.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.28 trillion.
The discount acceptance ratio in March was 72%, about 6 percentage points lower than that in February, and the contradiction between supply and demand was alleviated. In fact, the bill interest rate in March did not fall sharply or even "zero interest rate" as in February, but rose steadily from the middle of the month, only falling at the end of the month, but 3M and 1y transfer interest rates showed a slight upside down at the end of the month. This reflects:
On the one hand, the central bank's narrow credit control requires both total amount and structure to avoid credit through bill financing impulse. There is a certain "seesaw" effect between public short-term loan and bill financing. Compared with bill discount transaction, the temporary impulse of "borrowing and repayment" of corporate overdraft is lower for banks.
On the other hand, there was a certain "hot and cold imbalance" in the bank credit impulse at the end of March. Some banks' credit "impulse" is strong, exceeding the requirements of narrow credit indicators, and the credit line is vacated by selling bills. Compared with 1y transfer, 1m varieties have better liquidity and greater selling pressure. However, some banks that fail to meet the narrow credit requirements also occupy the credit line through bill financing at the end of the month.
Third, medium and long-term corporate loans have a strong policy driving effect. In March, medium and long-term corporate loans increased by 1344.8 billion, an increase of 14.8 billion year-on-year. Q1 increased by about 3.95 trillion, a decrease of 520 billion year-on-year, mainly due to the less increase in medium and long-term corporate operating loans, while fixed asset investment loans were slightly better. It reflects that under the current situation, the capital expenditure of enterprises is more bank government cooperation projects, and the market-oriented demand is weak; The bank's own risk appetite is not high, lack of confidence, and medium and long-term operating loans are replaced by short-term current loans. In addition, we speculate that the new policy demand for medium and long-term corporate loans since the beginning of the year is stronger, which may lead to the decline of capital input-output ratio. Some funds do not form physical workload, so they do not match the industrial data well. Affected by the credit default events in the real estate market, the willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land has decreased significantly, and the land income of local governments is under pressure. In the medium and long-term public loans issued by banks, some funds are invested in urban investment platforms or local state-owned real estate enterprises to repay enterprise debts, pay the loans of upstream and downstream supply chain enterprises and provide financial support for local governments.
Fourth, the weakening trend of mortgage demand is further deepened, and there is still room for substantial downward pricing. In March, residents' medium and long-term loans increased by 373.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion. Q1 added a total of 1.07 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 910 billion. This reflects that affected by the epidemic, the pressure on Residents' income and employment has increased, the willingness of residents to expand has decreased significantly, and the recovery of housing sales and mortgage demand has been slow. At present, the regulatory stability maintenance policy for real estate has been transferred to the demand side. Some cities have launched policies, including but not limited to relaxing the "four limits", mortgage interest rate, first set of recognition standards, down payment ratio, etc. in the future, under the framework of "implementing policies for cities", there will be continuous stimulating measures on the demand side to stabilize housing sales. We judge that under the pressure of supply and demand, the interest rate of follow-up mortgage loans still has a significant downward space. The downward price can partially stimulate the demand of residents for house purchase, and then play a role in stabilizing the sales of the real estate market. It is expected that if the epidemic does not continue to worsen, 2q mortgage will continue to pick up compared with February to March, but the disturbance of the epidemic may lead to the lag of recovery intensity.
Fifth, the development loan is expected to continue the positive growth trend. Since the beginning of this year, real estate development loans have recovered, which is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, large state-owned banks have made greater investment, and the expected increment accounts for nearly 80%, while joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks have made weaker investment. Second, the capital demand is still dominated by real estate enterprises and platforms with local government background, the bank's risk preference is more cautious, the strict list management system is implemented for public real estate loans, and the capital availability of private real estate enterprises is general. Third, M & A loans and affordable rental housing development loans increased rapidly, while other investments were relatively weak. Overall, it is expected that the new scale of Q1 development loan is expected to remain at about 300 billion. Although it still increased slightly year-on-year, it has improved compared with the negative growth trend from April to December 2021.
IV. on balance sheet financing + non-standard financing + government bonds are the main driving force to support the rise of social finance in March
In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion, an increase of 1.28 trillion year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of social finance stock was 10.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with February. Among them, on balance sheet financing + non-standard financing + government bonds are the main driving force to support the rise of social finance in March.
For the prediction of social finance, the market divergence is lower than that in February, mainly due to the large deviation between the standard of social finance and the standard of RMB loans of the central bank caused by the high increase of non bank loans. In March, non bank loans increased by - 45.4 billion, an increase of 18.4 billion year-on-year, reducing the data deviation of the two caliber.
Other structural sub items worthy of attention:
The pressure drop of non-standard financing slowed down significantly. In March, entrusted + trust loans increased by - 15.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 168 billion, undiscounted bills increased by 28.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 258.4 billion, which can also explain why there was no "zero interest rate" market in bill interest rate when bank bill financing was still high in March, mainly due to the recovery of bill source supply and easing the contradiction between bill supply and demand.
In March, the net financing of corporate bonds was 392.4 billion, an increase of 21.3 billion year-on-year. In terms of breakdown, the net financing of short-term financing and ultra short-term financing was 117.2 billion, an increase of about 90 billion year-on-year, but the total net financing in Q1 was 460 billion, an increase of about 210 billion year-on-year, which was the main contribution to the increase of corporate bonds; MTN's net financing was 48.8 billion, an increase of about 60 billion year-on-year. This reflects that since the beginning of the year, the direct financing market is mainly short-term varieties.
It can be said that enterprise side financing shows obvious characteristics of low-cost replacement, which is manifested as follows: ① switching to low pricing financial institutions through "early repayment" or "non renewal at maturity"; ② Replace medium and long-term business loans through short-term flow loans; ③ Through short-term debt and bill discount instead of liquid loan; ④ Loans are made through off balance sheet acceptance and letter of credit.
V. Q1 quasi money increment hit a record high, the demand for money storage increased and the circulation speed slowed down. It is necessary to pay attention to the idling of funds behind the high increase of credit
In March, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.7%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of February, and the growth difference of m2-m1 expanded again. From the perspective of deposit structure:
In March, resident deposits increased by 2.7 trillion, an increase of 762.3 billion year-on-year, and enterprise deposits increased by 2.65 trillion, an increase of 922.1 billion year-on-year. From the perspective of data, the growth of general bank deposits in March was good, which seems to be inconsistent with the "large amount and high price" of interbank certificates of deposit issued by state-owned stocks in March. But in fact, there is a problem that needs to be paid attention to, that is, the high increase of deposits in March may have a strong correlation with the bank credit impulse at the end of the month. Some banks have effectively taken into account the narrow credit requirements of the central bank and deposit growth through the impulse of public and short loans near the end of the month.
The year-on-year growth rate of M1 in March was 4.7%, the same as that in February. However, there is a problem worthy of attention, that is, the quasi monetary increment (m2-m1) in March was 3.27 trillion, an increase of about 1.5 trillion year-on-year, and the quasi monetary increment in Q1 was 11.7 trillion, an increase of about 1.8 trillion year-on-year, and the single quarter increment reached a record high.
Based on the actual situation of high growth of quasi currency, driven by weak demand and policy, the contradiction between credit supply and demand has increased, resulting in an obvious decline in loan interest rate. It is not excluded that the interest rate of credit funds obtained by some central enterprises and high-quality enterprises is significantly lower than 1y-lpr quotation, and these money may not fully flow into the real economy for the formation of physical workload, but for the purchase of structural deposits (3% interest rate) RMB financial management (interest rate of 3.5%) and deposit through SPV purchase agreement (interest rate of more than 4%) have formed capital idling to a certain extent.
Vi. investment suggestions: the expectation of "wide credit" can still be continued, and bank stock investment can still be optimistic
Entering 2q, "steady growth" has entered a critical period and "wide credit"
