Key investment points
Performance of this week’s section: this week (from April 4 to April 9), the overall market composite index fluctuated and fell. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 325185, up – 0.94% this week, the Shenzhen cost index rose – 2.20%, the small and medium-sized board 100 index rose – 2.14%, and the basic chemical industry sector rose against the trend, up 0.99%. Chemical stocks this week: the chemical sector fluctuated upward this week, and the increase was weaker than that of the big market. Among the stocks that are among the top gaingaingaingaingaingaingaingaingaingaingainamong the top ones are Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) . Judging from the rise of the overall chemical sector, the growth rate of the industry is developing well. Affected by the guidance of the 14th five year plan and the positive impact of phosphorus chemical industry, lithium battery and other sectors, the increase of Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) week exceeded 20%. According to the wind industry index, the chemical fertilizer and pesticide index rose for several consecutive days, with outstanding performance. As a hot stock in the potash fertilizer sector, the concept of chemical fertilizer has been shaken and strengthened, Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) recently increased significantly, with a weekly increase of more than 20%.
Crude oil market dynamics this week: IEA and the United States released reserve crude oil, and international oil prices fell broadly. Ice oil distribution this week closed at US $102.78/barrel (Mom – 1.54%); WTI crude oil closed at US $98.26/barrel (Mom – 1.02%). Tracking of key chemicals: among the chemicals we are concerned about this week, compound fertilizer (+ 10.14%), butyl rubber (+ 9.25%), ammonium chloride (+ 5.93%), natural gas (+ 5.40%) and hydrochloric acid (+ 4.84%) led the price increase. This week, the market cost of compound fertilizer was strongly supported, and the inventory of downstream enterprises was continuously consumed. Due to the tight supply of raw materials, the prices of main raw materials urea, potassium fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer were strong, and the market price of compound fertilizer remained high. This week, the butyl rubber market was operating at a high level, mainly in the downstream, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In terms of supply, most manufacturers stopped for maintenance. On the cost side, the isobutylene market quotation was strong, and the butyl rubber market price fluctuated upward. This week, the ammonium chloride market is at a high level, there is still some demand space in the downstream compound fertilizer market, the enthusiasm for taking goods is high, the overall construction of the supplier is general, the on-site supply continues to be tight, and the market price of ammonium chloride continues to rise.
The end products continue to sell well, and the probiotic industry is booming: China’s Probiotic industry started late. At present, the market share of Chinese manufacturers is low. With the continuous development of probiotic end consumer goods markets such as granules, drinks and solid drinks, China’s Probiotic industry has entered a period of rapid development, and probiotic strains suitable for the characteristics of Chinese intestinal flora will be gradually imported and replaced.
Main line of Chemical Investment: (1) cycle main line: economic recovery drives the improvement of the profitability of procyclical chemicals. (2) Growth main line: technology application and innovation trend & market expansion and subdivision of growth track.
Risk warning: crude oil supply fluctuates sharply; The situation of trade war worsened; The risk of large exchange rate fluctuations; The risk of falling downstream demand.
