Key investment points
Overall overview of the industry: the caliber of the passenger Federation: in March, the output of narrow passenger cars reached 1.823 million (year-on-year - 0.3%, month on month + 22.0%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 1.814 million (year-on-year - 1.6%, month on month + 23.6%). As the chip supply has recovered compared with February, there is a good foundation for the recovery of production and sales in March. However, under the influence of epidemic factors in Shenzhen + Geely + Shanghai and other places, the output and wholesale are generally lower than our expectations. Caliber of traffic compulsory insurance (preliminary data): in March, there were 1395300 traffic compulsory insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of - 16.52% / + 25.08% respectively. Looking forward to April 2022: considering the continued impact of the epidemic, we expect the overall output and wholesale chain ratio of the passenger Federation industry to be 1.5/1.5 million vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 9.53% / - 9.58% respectively; The overall export volume is expected to be 100000; The wholesale of new energy is expected to be 400000.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 25%. In March, the output of new energy vehicles was 437000 (year-on-year + 124.2%, month on month + 24.9%), and the wholesale sales volume was 455000 (year-on-year + 122.4%, month on month + 43.6%). In March, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 25.08%, up 3.30pct month on month, and the upward state continued. The new energy penetration rate of independent brands / luxury brands / mainstream joint venture brands was 41% / 34% / 3% respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 3.0pct / + 4.6pct / - 0.3pct respectively. Passenger car exports continued to grow at a high level year-on-year. The export of passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 107000, with a year-on-year increase of + 14% and a month on month decrease of - 20%. Among them, 11000 new energy vehicles were exported, with a month on month decrease of - 76%. The main reason for the month on month decrease was that Tesla China exported 60 vehicles at the end of the quarter, with a month on month decrease of 33000 vehicles.
At the level of automobile enterprises: there are many channels to supplement the warehouse, and the wholesale performance of new energy automobile enterprises is beautiful. Under the influence of the epidemic in March, dealers in Jilin, Shanghai and other places were affected to some extent. The industry channel inventory was + 310000, and SAIC GM Wuling / Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) / SAIC passenger car / Chery / GAC Toyota / SAIC Volkswagen channel replenished more, with + 7.74 / + 7.03 / + 3.30 / + 3.15 / + 2.72 / + 26500 respectively. Wholesale in March: 1) from a year-on-year perspective, the wholesale sales volume of most car enterprises is positive year-on-year, the performance of independent car enterprises is better than that of joint ventures, and the performance of new energy is better than that of traditional cars Byd Company Limited(002594) / ideal / Xiaopeng / ai'an performed better, with an increase of more than 100%; The wholesale of some auto enterprises was negative year-on-year, mainly due to the high base in the same period in 2021 and the continuous impact of chip shortage this month. 2) In terms of month on month comparison, except for SAIC passenger cars among independent brands, other car enterprises increased month on month, mainly due to the low impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February. FAW Volkswagen / SAIC passenger cars were - 5.43% / - 3.41% month on month.
Calculation of the impact of this round of Omicron epidemic on the production and marketing of passenger cars (real-time update). As of April 10, the detailed epidemic prevention policies and cycle days of about 30 cities were counted, and different cities were divided into four grades according to the severity. 1) Core assumptions: according to the severity of the epidemic, the capacity utilization rate of car enterprises in the city is reduced as follows: Grade 1 (80%), grade 2 (40%), grade 3 (10%) and grade 4 (0%); The decline of direct consumption power caused by being unable to go out due to control is: Grade 1 (100%), grade 2 (50%), grade 3 (10%) and grade 4 (0%).
2) calculation conclusion: if the current round of epidemic situation can be significantly improved by the end of April, 495000 passenger cars will be directly affected by the production capacity; The pessimistic / neutral / optimistic scenarios of the absolute value (direct + indirect) of the impact on the sales end of passenger cars are 990000 / 770000 / 550000 vehicles respectively, of which the pessimistic / neutral / optimistic scenarios of the impact of new energy are 20 / 15 / 110000 vehicles respectively. Adjustment of passenger car production and sales forecast in 2022 (neutral assumption): the output / wholesale / traffic compulsory insurance of passenger cars in 2022 are 2228 / 2238 / 2003 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.5% / + 6.3% / - 0.9% (about 4 percentage points lower than the previous forecast); Sales volume of new energy wholesale / compulsory insurance in 2022: 5.55 million / 5.05 million vehicles (previously predicted to be 5.7 million / 5.2 million vehicles).
Investment suggestion: the short-term epidemic brings fluctuations, and the logic of long-term optimistic about the automobile sector is still tenable. In 2022, there were 8 major gold stocks: complete vehicle [ideal + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Xiaopeng + Great Wall], parts [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ]. Secondly, the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Changan + coming of life + SAIC + well off + Jianghuai] and the whole vehicle [GAC + geegeely + Changan + well-off + well-off + JAC] and the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Changan + Changan + long vehicle + the whole vehicle + the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Geely + Changan + Changan + Changan + well + coming + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + well + well off + well off + well off + jachuai + etc, parts and components [ Guangxi Radio And Television Information Network Corporation Limited(600936) 0093 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) 933 + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) for Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) 9 ].
Risk tip: the recovery of downstream demand is lower than expected, and the epidemic control is lower than expected.
