The Investment Event passenger car Federation released the production and sales data of passenger cars in March 2022: the retail sales volume of that month was 1.579 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.5% and a month on month increase of + 25.6%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.814 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.6% and a month on month increase of + 23.6%; The output was 1.823 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.3% and a month on month increase of + 22%.
Our analysis and judgment
1) affected by the epidemic and other adverse factors, retail sales were cold in March, the year-on-year trend was weaker than that of wholesale, and the sales volume of independent brands increased against the trend. In March 2022, the retail sales volume of passenger cars reached 1.579 million, with a year-on-year ratio of – 10.5% and a month on month ratio of + 25.6%. Manufacturers sold 1.814 million wholesale vehicles, with a year-on-year ratio of – 1.6% and a month on month ratio of + 23.6%. The year-on-year decline in wholesale was significantly less than that in retail. This was mainly due to the weakening of consumption power under the influence of the epidemic, the changes in local management measures had a certain impact on logistics efficiency, and retail losses were large. From January to March, a total of 4.915 million vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year increase of – 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected; From January to March, a total of 5.439 million vehicles were sold wholesale, a year-on-year increase of + 8.3%, realizing a real good start. With the recovery of chip supply and the listing of heavy new products, the structural recovery of the auto market is facing better opportunities. In terms of structure, (1) 230000 luxury cars were retailed in March, with a year-on-year increase of – 14% and a month on month increase of + 43%, which failed to continue the trend in February; (2) The retail sales of self owned brands reached 750000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 17% and a month on month increase of + 37%. Self owned brands have achieved significant growth in the new energy market, and the performance of leading enterprises has been differentiated. The brands of Byd Company Limited(002594) and other traditional automobile enterprises have increased significantly year on year; (3) The retail sales of joint venture brands reached 590000, with a year-on-year ratio of – 30% and a month on month ratio of + 9%, of which the Japanese share was 20%, year-on-year ratio of – 3PCT, the German share was 18%, year-on-year ratio of – 7pct, and the American share was 10%, year-on-year ratio of – 0.5pct.
2) the growth of new energy vehicles is good, and the penetration rate further rises to 28.2%. In March, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 445000, with a year-on-year increase of + 137.6% and a month on month increase of + 63.1%, which was better than the trend in March over the years; The wholesale sales volume reached 455000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 122.4% and a month on month increase of + 43.6%, mainly due to the demand for replacement of traditional vehicles and the relatively mild epidemic prevention measures in the main selling cities, which promoted the sales volume of new energy vehicles. In mid March, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) retail penetration rate was 28.2%, up 17.6 percentage points year on year. Diversified new energy passenger vehicle market, Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive consolidate the leading position of independent brand new energy; The performance of traditional automobile enterprises represented by Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) is relatively outstanding. There are 13 enterprises with wholesale sales exceeding 10000 vehicles, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) (104000 vehicles), Tesla China (66000 vehicles) and SAIC GM Wuling (51000 vehicles) are the most prominent. In terms of models, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles in March was 371000, a year-on-year increase of + 116.8%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 84000, a year-on-year increase of + 151.3%. From the perspective of structure, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 41%, that of luxury vehicles is 34%, and that of mainstream joint ventures is only 3%. In March, the month on month growth of electric vehicle A00 was the strongest, and the growth rate of electric vehicle A00 gradually decreased from small to large. Among them, the wholesale sales of A00 class are 119000, accounting for 32% of pure electric vehicles; Grade A0 wholesale sales of 55000 vehicles, accounting for 15% of pure electric vehicles; Class A shares 22%, stable; The sales share of class B vehicles was + 320000, accounting for 3.3% month on month.
Investment suggestion: the prosperity of the head independent brand continues to rise. We suggest to continue to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) . SZ), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ( Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . SH / 2333. HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . SH); It is suggested to pay attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ( Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) . SH), the subject of scarce lighting controller Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) . SH), and the supplier of active and passive safety for intelligent driving Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ( Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) . SH).
Risk tips: 1. The risk of adverse impact of the epidemic on automobile production and marketing; 2. The risk that the sales volume of new energy vehicle industry is lower than expected. 3. The risk of capacity bottleneck caused by chip shortage.
