Investment advice
Industry strategy: battery safety has been paid more and more attention, so the high growth lithium battery coating material track has been born. The compound growth rate of the track has exceeded 50%, and the market space is expected to exceed 14 billion yuan in 2025. In the next 3-5 years, no matter which coating process is deduced, the amount of inorganic coating materials will increase significantly. Boehmite is the most elastic, and the market space is expected to increase five times in the next 5 years. At present, the market has stepped out of the global leader of boehmite Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) , and the capacity planning is far ahead. The supply scale is expected to account for “half” of the world from 2021. In addition, the demand for oily organic coating increases under the iteration of high energy density of the battery. At present, the single flat coating cost of PVDF has almost matched that of aramid, and all properties of aramid are better than PVDF. It is expected to replace PVDF. The global boehmite leader Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) , as well as the aramid leader Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) , and PMMA leader Wuxi Double Elephant Micro Fibre Material Co.Ltd(002395) , are recommended in the medium and long term.
Industry perspective
The future demand of boehmite will be upward. The inorganic coating film with boehmite and alumina as the main coating materials has better tensile strength and thermal shrinkage performance than the organic coating film represented by PVDF and aramid. At the same time, the cost is lower and highlights the cost performance. Under the trend of reducing the cost of the whole lithium battery industry chain, the demand is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, the core performance indexes of boehmite in inorganic coating materials are stronger than that of alumina. The cost difference between them is small, and the comprehensive cost performance of boehmite is higher. It is expected to replace alumina.
Boehmite has a long-term cost advantage. Boehmite has the lowest single flat cost among all coating materials, about 0.37 yuan / flat, which is mainly due to the low cost of boehmite materials. At the same time, due to the combination of aqueous solvents, the production cost is 0.15-0.2 yuan / flat lower than that of oily solvents. In addition, by splitting the cost, we found that 36% / 26% of boehmite raw material cost is manufacturing / energy consumption cost, while 67% and 63% of aramid and PVDF raw material cost are raw material cost. Boehmite cost structure is better and there is more room for long-term decline.
The trend of slurry integration is accelerating, and the industry share will be further concentrated to leading companies. The integration can save the production cost, and there is no need to re dry the liquid boehmite slurry into boehmite powder in the process, so as to save energy consumption. At the same time, the products sold by the slurry integration are liquid, which can save the cost of external packaging, and avoid the manual handling cost, splitting and cleaning packaging cost of customers. In addition, because boehmite slurry has strict requirements for the control of magnetic foreign matter content, boehmite crystal conversion appearance and slurry solid content, the barrier is higher than that of direct powder supply, and the share is expected to be concentrated to leading companies with integration ability.
Optimistic about the long-term development potential of aramid fiber under domestic substitution. Aramid fiber has good consistency and no particles, and the coating is very thin at 1 μ m-2 μ M is the only organic material that can be coated separately at present, and its lightness is not possessed by other materials, which is in line with the long-term development trend that the diaphragm needs to take into account safety and lightness. However, at present, the single flat cost of aramid coating is about 1.02 yuan / flat, and boehmite is only 0.37 yuan / flat. At present, the performance of boehmite is enough to meet the basic requirements of lithium battery diaphragm. Aramid does not have cost performance under this price, so it is optimistic about the long-term development potential of aramid under domestic substitution.
Risk tips
The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles was less than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was less than expected, the demand for diaphragm decreased due to the change of lithium battery system, the risk of deviation in industry measurement, the company’s capacity expansion was less than expected, and the public data used in the research report had the risk of information lag or late update
