Events
In April 11, 2022, according to a number of media reports, such as the financial union, the Suzhou real estate market and transaction management center clearly decided to adjust the restriction and restriction policy from today (April 11th): the household purchase restriction for non registered residence households has been adjusted from social security to 2 consecutive years to 2 years without continuous. The sales restriction of second-hand houses has been changed from 5 years to 3 years.
Commentary
Suzhou relaxed the purchase and sale restriction policy to help stabilize the property market. ① It is necessary for Suzhou to adjust the purchase and sale restriction policy. Even as a key city in the Yangtze River Delta, Suzhou's real estate market is also facing great downward pressure: in the second half of 2021, 3.93 million square meters of commercial houses were sold in Suzhou, a year-on-year increase of - 15%; From January to March 2022, 1.44 million cubic meters were traded, with a year-on-year increase of - 38%. Meanwhile, the inventory on sale decontamination cycle has continued to rise since July 2021. 2. The original restriction policy in Suzhou is: the registered residence households in this city can purchase 3 suites at most, and the 1 households can not buy 1 households in the non registered residence households, provided that the tax and social security certificates for 2 years and more in Suzhou are within 2 years. The relaxation of social security requirements in this adjustment is the relaxation of house purchase restrictions for outsiders (Suzhou "new citizens"), which has expanded the house purchase group and opened the demand side. ③ The restriction on the sale of second-hand houses has been shortened by 2 years, which has improved the liquidity of second-hand houses and reduced the restriction on replacement purchase. It is expected that the demand for replacement improvement in Suzhou will be accelerated. Previously, Suzhou has relaxed the credit side. In late March, the interest rate of the first mortgage of many banks has dropped to 4.6%, the lowest level in five years. We expect that a series of easing measures will help Suzhou property market further recover after the epidemic.
First and second tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta accelerated the relaxation of real estate regulation. After Zhengzhou, Quzhou and Qinhuangdao issued more lenient policies, Lanzhou issued 20 measures on April 4, including reducing the proportion of down payment, promoting monetized land acquisition and resettlement, and supporting M & A loans; On April 7, Chongqing Municipality proposed to meet the reasonable housing purchase credit needs of new citizens in terms of commercial loans, provident fund loans and portfolio loans. At the same time, the provident fund loans should recognize houses but not loans, and the restrictions on two sets of provident fund loans should be relaxed; In the Yangtze River Delta city group, the interest rate of the first suite of some banks in Nanjing has been declining, the lowest has dropped to 5.4%. And the restriction of purchase in Lishui and Liuhe district is relaxed. Registered residence cards with non local residence can directly open the first set of house purchase certificates. According to the research, Wuxi has also implemented loose policies such as lengthening the payment cycle of land transfer fees, reducing the proportion of down payment, increasing the amount of provident fund and liberalizing the purchase of relatives. The scope and intensity of loose regulation and control in the first and second tier cities and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are expanding, which confirms the predictions mentioned in our external report "stepping into a virtuous cycle and on the right track, the layout of real estate is at the right time", such as the loan restriction and house purchase in high-energy cities, the loosening of loan recognition, and the relaxation of purchase restriction on new citizens. We expect that more first and second tier cities and the Yangtze River Delta cities will introduce loose policies on the demand side of purchase, sale and loan restriction in the future, Lead the national property market to gradually recover.
It is expected that a large-scale and multi-dimensional easing policy will be introduced to promote a virtuous circle in the real estate industry. At present, some loose control policies have been issued nationwide, but due to the limited scope and strength and the impact of the epidemic, the real estate market sales are still depressed: in March 2022, the medium and long-term RMB loans of residents across the country were 373.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 40%; From January to March 2022, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in China decreased by 47% year-on-year, and the single month in March decreased by 53% year-on-year; According to the high-frequency weekly data, affected by the Qingming Festival holiday and the epidemic, commercial housing transactions in 40 cities totaled 2.94 million square meters in the latest week (April 2-april 8), with a week-on-week ratio of - 43% and a week-on-week ratio of - 56%; Second hand housing transactions in 17 cities totaled 1.02 million square meters, with a week-on-week ratio of - 34% and a week-on-year ratio of - 39%. At the same time, as a pillar industry of the national economy, it is necessary to introduce loose policies to promote its healthy development and virtuous cycle. It is expected that loose policies at both ends of supply and demand will continue to be introduced in the future. However, due to the impact of the time of policy implementation and epidemic situation, the sales response of the real estate market may lag, and the short-term funds of most real estate enterprises are still under pressure. Therefore, we believe that more credit tools will be put into use, To ease the financial pressure of real estate enterprises.
Investment advice
We expect that a wide range of multi-dimensional easing policies will continue to be introduced to help the property market gradually stabilize and recover. At the same time, there will be more credit tools to help real estate enterprises alleviate short-term capital pressure. First promote enterprises with contrarian growth of sales Investment and strong certainty of future performance, such as Greentown China, China Construction Development International, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; We will steadily select the head state-owned enterprises and central enterprises with relatively low leverage and abundant cash flow, and recommend Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) .
Risk tips
Loose regulation is less than expected; The epidemic affected the implementation of policies and market recovery
