The spot price adjustment of thermal coal is expected to stabilize gradually, and the central coal price remained high in the second quarter. On the demand side, coal entered the traditional consumption off-season in the second quarter. The daily consumption of coal in eight coastal provinces fell year-on-year, and the spot price of port fell. Among them, the spot closing price of q5500 thermal coal produced in Shanxi of Qinhuangdao port was 1295 yuan / ton on April 6, down 310 yuan / ton compared with March 24, a decrease of 19.3%. It is expected that with the gradual implementation of the new supply guarantee measures in the second quarter, the coal output will gradually increase, the tight pattern of coal supply and demand in the second quarter is expected to slow down, and the price of power coal will enter the stabilization stage. At present, the price center is still at a high level. The average price of the long-term association in the first quarter is more than 720 yuan / ton, still higher than 590 yuan / ton in the same period last year, and the performance of most coal enterprises in the first quarter will achieve high growth year-on-year. In addition, the pricing formula of 675 benchmark price + floating price will be implemented from May 1, and the coal price center is expected to remain high in the second quarter. At present, the impact of overseas situation on energy shock still exists, and there is limited space for China’s price to decline sharply in the short term.
Downstream demand increased year-on-year, and coking coal prices remained high. In the downstream of coking coal, according to the data of China Iron and Steel Association, in late March, according to the key statistics, iron and steel enterprises produced 237611 million tons of crude steel, 204451 million tons of pig iron and 232833 million tons of steel. Among them, the daily output of crude steel was 2.601 million tons, an increase of 5.41% month on month; The daily output of pig iron was 1858600 tons, an increase of 3.47% month on month; The daily output of steel was 2.1167 million tons, an increase of 5.18% month on month. The year-on-year increase in demand has driven the increase in coking coal demand. On the supply side, due to the insufficient new production capacity, safety, environmental protection and other factors, the operating rate, coking coal supply and demand has always been tight, especially the relative scarcity of high-quality coking coal resources. The main coking coal price index has risen sharply since early January, including Shanxi Gujiao main coking coal rising by more than 29%, Guizhou Liupanshui main coking coal rising by more than 40%, and Mengxi coking coal price index rising by more than 37%. The growth of demand drives the continuous rise of coking coal prices. It is expected that the tight supply and demand of coking coal will continue in the second quarter, and the coking coal market will continue to be recommended.
The performance forecast of the first quarterly report of some coal enterprises disclosed that the performance of rising coal prices increased significantly year-on-year Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) released the performance forecast for the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter will be about 900 million yuan, an increase of 395 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of about 78.22% year-on-year Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter will be 850950 million yuan, an increase of 623723 million yuan, an increase of 274.73% to 318.82% Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) in the first quarter, the coal sales revenue was 2.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 66.4%, and the gross profit was 1.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.1% Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) announcement estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter was 5.1 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan, an increase of 1.727 billion yuan to 2.627 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 51.22% to 77.91% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) .
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, impact of extreme weather and coal policy are not as expected.
