The financing of real estate enterprises has warmed up, and the deregulation cycle continues to rise. At present, the decline trend of industry fundamentals continues. The sales area of high-frequency data in the week before April decreased by 45.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to decline. The new opening rate of key cities was 37.1%, down 5.6 percentage points month on month, still at a relatively low level. The de urbanization cycle of key cities rose to 30.1 months, rising month on month for five consecutive weeks. In the land market, the total transaction price of residential land in Baicheng decreased by 69.8% year-on-year, further expanding the decline. In March, the first home loan interest rate was 5.34%, down 13bp month on month, and the decline continued to expand. In March, the financing of real estate enterprises recovered. The total issuance of domestic bonds was 73.65 billion yuan, with 77 issued, an increase of 182% and 185% respectively year-on-year. The issuance of overseas bonds was US $2.38 billion, the highest since October last year.
Multi party cooperation to promote risk resolution. On April 5, jiazhaoye group announced that it had signed strategic cooperation agreements with China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Great Wall assets, focusing on comprehensive cooperation in urban renewal, real estate development, commercial complex management and other fields in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan district. The implementation of the first strategic cooperation agreement of leading central enterprises, AMC and real estate enterprises in danger provides experience for the subsequent resolution of real estate enterprise risks, which has strong signal significance. At present, the M & a loan credit exceeds 100 billion, and there are few actual landing projects. At present, the industry fundamentals continue to decline, and we expect subsequent industry mergers and acquisitions to accelerate. With the high-quality real estate enterprises revitalizing the high-quality assets of the insured real estate enterprises, the pressure of insufficient supply in the industry will be alleviated in the short term. The market-oriented liquidation of the insurance housing enterprises and the reduction of the heat of industry competition will improve the industry pattern in the long run and realize the double rise of industry concentration and profit margin.
Loose policy is expected to bring a comprehensive rebound in the sector. In addition to the game nature of crisis real estate enterprises, we are more optimistic about improving the elastic space of second-line leading real estate enterprises. Previously, the market gave the state-owned central enterprises a valuation premium. At present, the valuation has been generally repaired to more than 7 times, while the target of the second-line leader is only about 5 times, which still has more than 50% space compared with its own historical valuation center.
At present, we prefer to recommend: Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group. Continuous recommendation: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) Gemdale Corporation(600383) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) china overseas development. Property category: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , country garden service, poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, xinchengyue service.
