Main points:
This week's view:
The disturbance of the epidemic situation has intensified, and the logistics distribution has become a bottleneck. Since March, the impact of the epidemic disturbance on society has been increasing. Partial or full-scale outbreaks have occurred in Changchun, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other first and second tier cities. At present, the epidemic situation in Shenzhen, Dongguan and other places has been basically controlled and the living order has been restored. However, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still severe, the new number of asymptomatic infections has reached a new high, and has not reached the inflection point of the epidemic in the short term, It is difficult to carry out offline activities. Compared with the previous strains, the infectivity of this round of Omicron strain has been significantly enhanced, resulting in the logistics distribution that has not appeared before becoming a bottleneck restricting the exertion of the turnover efficiency of the whole society. As reflected in the household appliance industry, it is difficult to successfully complete the offline and online sales activities of household appliances in the first and second tier cities affected by the above epidemic.
Home appliance sales are under short-term pressure, so it is suggested to pay attention to structural highlights. From the household appliance retail data released by ovicloud in March, taking air conditioners, washing machines, range hoods, electric pressure cookers and soybean milk machines as examples, their sales / sales in March were - 28.9% / - 22.2%, - 50.8% / - 43.4%, - 16.8% / - 12.8%, - 31.6% / - 30.0%, - 30.9% / - 34.7% year-on-year respectively. The growth rate of the same month fell sharply, and the short-term pressure was obvious. However, there are still notable structural highlights under the epidemic, including refrigerators, integrated stoves and dishwashers. The increment / sales volume in March was - 4.4% / - 7.0%, - 11.4% / + 12.2%, - 0.5% / + 15.0% respectively year-on-year. Among them, refrigerators, as one of the three traditional white electricity, showed significant resilience compared with air conditioners and washing machines, or mainly due to the disturbance of the epidemic, which strengthened the household storage demand and formed a strong support for refrigerator consumption. We expect that, After the epidemic situation is further controlled in the second quarter, the refrigerator sales are expected to meet the demand concentrated release dividend brought by the superposition of renewal demand and new demand in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to white power faucet Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) ; As an emerging household electrical appliance category, integrated stoves and dishwashers have been leading the household electrical appliance industry in growth in recent two years, and can still maintain positive sales growth under the epidemic. It can be seen that the high prosperity of the track has not decreased. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) .
Plate view
White electricity sector: the main support for white electricity repair comes from: 1) the pressure on the high base caused by the epidemic is gradually weakened, 2) the price rise trend of bulk commodities is alleviated, 3) the rise of shipping prices is stopped and stabilized, and 4) the trend of high-end consumption is gradually becoming. However, it is still plagued by long-term factors: 1) macroeconomic downturn; 2) Weakening of real estate pull, etc. In contrast, in the short term, the supporting factors have a direct and effective impact on the operating results of white power enterprises, and the short-term profitability of white power leaders can be repaired.
In the medium and long term, China's white power market has gradually transformed into a stock competitive market dominated by renewal demand. Under this background, we are more optimistic about the deep barriers built by white power leaders in terms of brand, channel, R & D, management and other underlying basic capabilities, and believe that in the continuous innovation category of white power, they can rely on their accumulated advantages to achieve the constant strength of the strong. At the same time, the white power leader with excellent product power, mature supply chain and rich experience in overseas operation has the opportunity to improve the penetration of overseas market, and the overseas market space is broad. Kitchen electricity sector: the overall demand of kitchen electricity sector is relatively weak, but the performance of sub sectors is differentiated. It is suggested to pay attention to the integrated stove sub sector with low penetration and high growth. We believe that the penetration rate of integrated stoves at this stage is still low, while the existing stock housing market is large and has sufficient penetration space. At the same time, after the early consumer education of integrated stoves (especially, after the four leading enterprises took the lead in listing in 2020, Pinxuan strengthened to further improve the popularity of integrated stoves), the vigorous development in recent two years has promoted some leading enterprises to complete the accumulation from one to ten. With the construction of channels and the increasing improvement of product categories, and referring to the development track of traditional kitchen electric faucets, the leapfrog development of integrated stoves from 10 to 100 can be expected.
Cleaning appliances: under the industry characteristics of low stock and demand determined by supply, the frequent emergence of new products plays a great role in promoting the penetration of floor sweepers and floor washers Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) launched the new self-cleaning floor sweeper U10 with mop and floor washer G10, Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) launched the new floor sweeper X1 with self-cleaning + self dust collection + self drying, and Yunjing's second-generation new floor sweeper J2 with self-cleaning + self changing + self drying. These new products are significantly improved in product performance or industrial design compared with the past, in line with the current consumption upgrading trend, and are expected to further stimulate terminal sales. At the same time, the rapid volume of floor washing machine has also attracted the rapid follow-up of Midea, lake, Jiuyang, Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Xinbao and other enterprises. In the first half of 22, more enterprises will launch relevant products, and the high-profile atmosphere and certainty of floor washing machine and other emerging clean electrical appliances are strong.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the white power leaders Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , whose competition pattern is continuously optimized and whose profitability is expected to be marginally improved.
It is suggested to pay attention to the integrated stove leader Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which comprehensively promotes the improvement of multi-dimensional organizational capabilities such as products, brands, channels and management, the traditional kitchen electric faucet Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , which arranges the new integrated stove products with the main brand, and the integrated stove leader Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which continuously optimizes the product structure and steadily expands multiple channels. It is suggested to pay attention to the sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leader Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) with outstanding comprehensive advantages and building the second growth pole with the help of intelligent life appliances, as well as the sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leader Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , which has deep technical barriers and rapid expansion of overseas channels.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth is less than expected, resulting in the decline of residents' purchasing power; The severe regulation of real estate has a negative impact on the demand for downstream household appliances; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the resumption of production and work.
