Key investment points:
In March, the lithium battery sector index was significantly weaker than the CSI 300 index. In March 2022, the lithium battery index fell by 12.78% and the new energy vehicle index fell by 13.16%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 8.60% in the same period. The lithium battery index was significantly weaker than the CSI 300 index.
In mid March, the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars continued to double. In March 2022, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sold 484000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 114%, a month-on-month increase of 44.9% in February, and the monthly sales volume in March accounted for 21.67%. The sales volume continued to hit a new high in the same period. The growth was mainly related to the introduction of stable growth policies by local governments, the significant improvement of consumer recognition and the alleviation of core shortage. In February 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity was 13.68gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 145.13%, of which ternary materials accounted for 42.74% Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and zhongchuangxin ranked among the top three.
Upstream raw material prices rose and fell. As of April 8, 2022, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 517000 yuan / ton, up 3.40% from the beginning of March, and is expected to remain high in the short term; The price of lithium hydroxide was 493900 yuan / ton, up 13.05% from the beginning of March, and is expected to remain high in the short term. The price of electrolytic cobalt was 557500 yuan / ton, up 1.64% from the beginning of March, with a short-term overall high shock; The price of lithium cobaltate was Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) yuan / ton, up 6.29% from the beginning of March; The price of Sanyuan 523 cathode material was 372000 yuan / ton, up 3.91% from the beginning of March; The price of lithium iron phosphate is 169000 yuan / ton, up 4.97% from the beginning of March. It is expected to be dominated by high shocks in the short term. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 455000 yuan / ton, down 17.27% from the beginning of March. It is expected to be high and under pressure in the short term; The electrolyte was 100000 yuan / ton, down 16.67% from the beginning of March. It is expected to be high, volatile and under pressure.
Maintain the investment rating of “stronger than the market” in the industry. As of April 11, 2022: the valuation of lithium battery and gem were 51.41 times and 37.68 times respectively. Combined with the development prospect of the industry, the rating of “stronger than the big market” of the industry was maintained. In March, the performance of the lithium battery sector was significantly weaker than that of the main indexes, mainly because there were more uncertain factors outside China and exceeded expectations. The market was generally unfavorable to the sector with high valuation, but the valuation of some high-quality targets in the sector was within a reasonable range. Combined with the industry dynamics outside China, the price trend of subdivided fields, monthly sales volume and industry development trend, the industry boom continues to rise on the whole. Combined with the great uncertainty of some factors outside China, the current industry valuation level and the performance expectation of individual stocks in the recent sector, the short-term sector needs to be cautious, but should not be overly pessimistic. When the main index stabilizes, we will actively pay attention to the investment opportunities of oversold rebound in the sector. In the medium and long term, the development prospect of new energy vehicle industry outside China is determined, and the sector deserves special attention. At the same time, it is expected that the performance and trend of individual stocks will also be differentiated. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of leaders in subdivided fields.
Risk warning: the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected; The prices in the subdivided fields fluctuate sharply; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The progress of lithium extraction from Salt Lake exceeded expectations; Systemic risk.
