Core view
In terms of the market, the A-share market was impacted by the dual emotions of overseas tightening and China’s epidemic, and there was a significant correction. The relevant sectors of the real estate industry chain performed strongly, and the middle and lower reaches of consumption, TMT and other sectors were significantly affected by the negative impact of the epidemic and fell sharply. Liquor adjustment is obvious, mainly because of the market Baijiu Baijiu scene missing, slowing sales and other concerns gradually increased. We think that 3-4 months for Baijiu consumption season, dynamic sales slowed down, digest inventory pressure is not big. The current Baijiu valuation has dropped to a reasonable level. After the epidemic is eased, there will be obvious compensation as business and banquets demand warmer. At present, the PE of most companies in 22 years is 20-30 times, and the configuration value is prominent. It is recommended to pay attention to it.
Industry trend review
Overall market performance, last week, the CSI 300 fell 1.06% to close at 423077 points, of which the food and beverage industry fell 1.37%, 0.31 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index and ranked 14th among the 28 Shenwan sub industries. In terms of subdivided areas, last week, the sub sectors of food and beverage were in a state of decline, of which food processing fell the most, down 4.11%, followed by seasoning and fermented products II (- 3.99%), leisure food (- 3.43%), beverage and dairy products (- 2.52%). In terms of individual stocks, Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) (22.17%), Hai Nan Yedao (Group) Co.Ltd(600238) (7.56%), Citic Guoan Wine Co.Ltd(600084) (6.40%), Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (5.06%), Henan Kedi Dairy Co.Ltd(002770) (4.41%) led the performance.
Industry highlights and important announcements this week
(1) according to the report of Weijiu, on April 8, in response to the investors’ question on whether shareholders can buy the liquor of the general meeting of shareholders at the general meeting of shareholders on the investor platform, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) responded that the policy for shareholders to buy liquor at the general meeting of shareholders in 2021 has not been determined yet. (2) On the evening of April 10, it was announced that the company received the notice of filing a case from the CSRC on April 8. Due to suspected illegal information disclosure, the CSRC decided to file a case against the company in accordance with the securities law of the people’s Republic of China, the administrative punishment law of the people’s Republic of China and other laws and regulations. (3) On April 8, Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) announced that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be 17-22 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.78% – 71.83%.
Investment advice
1) after the initial adjustment, the Baijiu sector was pessimistic. Hold tight the Baijiu line and look for two or three lines with high elasticity. We should pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , etc. 2) Although the price increase of mass products alleviated the cost pressure last year, due to the general rise in global commodity prices and the continuous rise in the prices of many raw materials, the cost side pressure is still relatively large. Superimposed on the current weak market demand and the existence of high inventory in some sectors, we believe that the overall investment opportunity of mass products sector still needs to wait. 3) The epidemic situation has repeatedly driven the demand for prefabricated vegetables. It is suggested to pay attention to quick-frozen food.
Risk tips: the risk of epidemic exceeding expectations, food safety risk and market style change risk
