At present, the industry is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The decline in commercial housing sales and the further pressure under the epidemic have become more prominent. The relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions in more cities and the further decline of mortgage interest rates have gradually become a realistic choice. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectations, both supply and demand are facing great impacts. The policy goal of "stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations" will face great challenges. It is urgent to further strengthen market support.
Historically, the trend of the real estate sector is strongly related to the deregulation of policies, while the deregulation of policies is closely related to the trend of development investment and house prices. The successive introduction of leverage reduction policies has accelerated the exposure of the liquidity problems of highly leveraged real estate enterprises. The superposition of multiple factors at both ends of supply and demand further promotes the rapid decline of demand. The sharp decline of sales leads to the gradual fermentation of the risk of vicious circle in the industry. The focus of the policy is shifting from the risk of real estate enterprises' capital to the risk of vicious circle caused by the stall decline at the demand side. With the statement of the central and local governments and the release of local relaxation policies, the market's expectation of policy overweight is gradually clear, and the real estate sector began to get out of the obvious excess return.
In the short term, with the release of policies and the improvement of support expectations, the industry policy atmosphere is relatively friendly during this period, and there will be a big game in the market for the reduction of default risk of private enterprises. However, many low credit private enterprises with high risk still face great liquidity pressure, which may be difficult to support until the market warms up; Moreover, frequent negative news and almost lost land acquisition ability have also greatly damaged the market reputation and future development space of the enterprise. We believe that in the long run, holding high credit real estate enterprises is a more stable strategy. Under the industry background of frequent thunderstorms in various enterprises, at the sales end, high credit real estate enterprises can win the trust of home buyers; On the supply side, high credit real estate enterprises continue to obtain financing support from financial institutions, and still have the ability to obtain land in the open market and acquire projects through mergers and acquisitions in the current market environment. Market reputation and business strength have laid the foundation for future development.
We believe that the advantages of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support from the financing side, after meeting the steady central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head, will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises, and the market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk that the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected, the risk that profitability continues to decline, and the risk that sales are less than expected.
