Core view
Since March, the market as a whole has rebounded weakly, with obvious differentiation in various industries. The household appliance industry, which is greatly affected by upstream raw materials, is in the stage of stabilizing after a sharp decline. Although the performance of real estate stocks has warmed up under the expectation of steady growth, the sustainability and effectiveness of the policy need to be further observed under the background of the current sluggish macro environment. In addition, under the background of global inflation, the sharp rise in raw material prices and the downturn in downstream demand make some home appliance manufacturers face profit squeeze. In the future, with the continuous increase of fiscal and monetary policies, it is necessary to wait for the bottom of sentiment and the bottom of the market.
From the terminal data, the sales volume / sales volume of W14 (3.28-4.1) white electricity continued the year-on-year downward trend in the previous two weeks, in which the air conditioner fell significantly year-on-year. The online average price of refrigerators and washing machines has remained relatively stable, and the offline average price has fallen slightly since last month. In February, the overall export volume of white electricity continued to decline; In terms of production scheduling, the production performance of household air conditioners in China in April increased by 5.4% compared with the same period last year, mainly to increase production scheduling for traditional peak seasons and prepare goods for channels.
The real estate policy continued to exert force, and the price of raw materials remained high and volatile. Q1 real estate policy has completed the bottom stage. Although dragged down by the epidemic, the market performance does not meet expectations, but with the release of the impact of the policy, the Q2 repair process deserves attention. Last week (4.6-4.8), the average price of copper rose 0.11% month on month, the average price of aluminum fell 3.04% month on month, and the ABS plastic price index and steel price index rose 0.13% and 1.29% month on month respectively.
Q4 the heavy position allocation of household appliances of public funds increased month on month. W14 (3.28-4.1) home appliance sector increased by 3.41%, ranking 10 / 31 in the rate of return of Shenwan sub industry.
Industry news and important announcements
Russia Ukraine conflict + China’s city closure double blow, container shipping prices fell for 11 consecutive weeks; Anhui smart home appliance industry to build 500 million industrial clusters; The 131st Canton Fair will be held online from April 15 to 24; Lanzhou issued a number of policies to deregulate the property market.
Last week, several listed companies such as Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) , Zhejiang Dun’An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) , Suzhou Hesheng Special Material Co.Ltd(002290) issued annual reports.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the traditional leaders who benefit from the recovery of fundamentals and the emerging categories of household appliances with high landscape. Related objects: Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , etc.
Risk tips
The real estate policy is not as expected; Raw materials rose sharply; Changes in tariff policies; The consumer demand side is less than expected; Exchange rate rise, etc.
