Core view
[market performance] last week, the CSI 300 index closed at 423077 points, up or down – 1.06% in one week and – 14.36% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 325185, up or down – 0.94% in one week and – 10.66% year to date. Among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, the top three rose last week were architectural decoration (+ 6.06%), steel (+ 3.97%), and building materials (+ 3.93%); The top three declines were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 4.72%), power equipment (- 4.68%) and electronics (- 4.67%). The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector rose or fell by – 4.72% last week, ranking 31st. Since the beginning of the year, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector has increased or decreased by – 5.45%, ranking seventh.
[key information]
[the state plans to carry out the collection and storage of the fourth batch of central frozen pork reserves within the year] according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the specific price of pig grain has been continuously lower than 5:1 recently, which is in the level I early warning range of excessive decline determined by the plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring the supply and price stability of pork market. The development and Reform Commission and relevant parties will carry out the collection and storage of the fourth batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year, and it is planned to collect and store another 40000 tons of frozen pork in the near future. If the follow-up pig prices continue to operate at a low level, the state will continue to carry out the collection and storage work, guide local governments to pay close attention to the collection and storage, and promote the return of pig prices to a reasonable range as soon as possible. [Key announcement]
[ Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ] in March 2022, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) sold 5.986 million pigs (including 527000 piglets), with a sales revenue of 7.432 billion yuan, an increase of 111.3% and 5.3% respectively year-on-year. Among them, 706600 pigs were sold to the wholly-owned subsidiary Muyuan Meat Food Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries. From January to March 2022, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) sold 13.817 million pigs, including 12.975 million commercial pigs, 809000 piglets and 33000 breeding pigs Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) said that as of the end of March, the number of sows that the company could breed was 2.752 million.
[opinion]
Pig breeding: pig prices continue to bottom out, and the decontamination is expected to accelerate. According to the data of Yongyi information, on April 8, the price of live pigs was 12.18 yuan / kg, with a weekly month on month decrease of 1.54%. According to Yongyi information, the stock of fertile sows decreased by 1.23% in March. The sales data of listed pig enterprises in March showed that the price of live pigs was still bottoming out, but the decline was narrowed month on month; In March, the slaughter volume of pigs increased, and the supply of pork market was still at a high level. At present, the consumer demand in the downstream of the pig market is weak, the covid-19 epidemic rebounds, the consumer side lacks favorable support, and the pig price is in the bottom shock state. It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with stable production and operation.
Seed industry: the central government encourages the expansion of production, and is vigilant against the entry of bulk feed “carrying diseases”. According to the statistics of China feed industry information network, the average price of wheat last week was 2634 yuan / ton, the average price of corn was 2924 yuan / ton, and the average price of soybean was 6271 yuan / ton. The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the central government proposed to expand the planting of soybean oil and improve the area and yield of corn, and the yield of rice increased steadily. Recently, the avian influenza virus has spread in the United States. There is a risk that bulk feed imports from epidemic areas will carry the virus into customs, or lead to supply shortage. It is expected that most grain prices will remain high. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading seed enterprises with leading technical reserves and obvious quality advantages.
Investment advice
Pig breeding: pig prices have been running low for a long time, and the clearing of production capacity may show an accelerated trend. It is suggested to grasp the opportunity of layout on the left and pay attention to enterprises with stable production and operation.
Seed industry: the rigid superposition of demand and the decline of grain supply will keep grain prices at a high level. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading seed enterprises with leading technical reserves and obvious quality advantages.
Risk tips
Non plague situation; The pig price is lower than expected; Fluctuations in grain prices; The breeding epidemic spread to China and other countries.
