\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 291 Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) )
[matters]
Recently, the company released the annual performance express of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 700 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2996%. The sharp decline in performance was mainly due to the great impact of the epidemic on offline commercial sales, resulting in operating losses of the shoe business, provision for bad debts and inventory depreciation of 315 million, impairment of collective goodwill of fashion media business of 207 million, amortization expenses of equity incentives of 69 million and other reasons. In January 2022, the company announced that it plans to transfer the equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary, focus on the social e-commerce service business, and plan to sell the business related to footwear sales. It is expected that the operating loss of footwear business will be significantly improved in 2022.
In the first quarter of 2022, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 80-120 million, with a year-on-year increase of 752.7% - 1179.1%. Benefiting from the 60% year-on-year growth of live broadcast e-commerce business Gmv and the significant loss reduction of footwear business, the company's operating performance is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year growth. Due to the impact of covid-19 epidemic in China during the reporting period, it has been difficult for express delivery since March, which still has a certain impact on the live broadcast e-commerce business. In addition, the corresponding amortization expense of the equity incentive plan in the first quarter of 2021 was 19million, which also had a certain impact on the company's operating performance.
[comments]
The loss of footwear business has been significantly reduced, the Gmv of live broadcast e-commerce business has increased, and the profit margin has rebounded significantly. The company plans to sell the business related to footwear sales, transform to the "light" asset operation mode, and significantly narrow the operating loss. Tiktok has been making a great effort to shake off the electricity supplier since the second half of last year, and is among the tiktok MCN. However, as Jia Nailiang and other head anchors brought more welfare goods in the early stage, the company's operation focused more on Gmv to enhance the bargaining power, and the overall commodity commission ratio and profit margin were low. With the company's live Gmv exceeding 10 billion in 2021, the future focus will return to the level of profit margin. In the first quarter of 2022, Gmv exceeded 2.6 billion, the profit margin of Gmv caliber was about 4%, and the profit margin rebounded significantly. On the whole, we believe that 2022 will be a year of substantial growth in the company's performance. The development of the company's live e-commerce business and the layout of digital people and overseas fields are expected to help the growth of the company's main business. Due to the impact of the sale of footwear related businesses, we raised the profit forecast for 20222023. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 20212023 will be 2.81/36.4/5.14 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be -7.0/6.0/830 million respectively, and the EPS will be -0.77/0.66/0.91 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be - / 25.7/18.7 respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
[risk tips]
Macroeconomic downside risk;
Policy regulatory risk.
