\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 373 China Transinfo Technology Co.Ltd(002373) )
[key points of investment]
Income growth, profit fluctuation caused by non economic projects and high investment. The company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 10.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.15%. In the whole year, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 724 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.01%, and the deduction of non net profit was 631 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.70%; The net operating cash flow was RMB 242million, a year-on-year decrease of 81.59%. As the epidemic at the end of the year affected the delivery rhythm of the project and market fluctuations affected non economic projects, the performance was lower than our previous expectations. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 3.529 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of – 1.38%. The net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit deducted in a single quarter of Q4 were 169 million yuan and 97 million yuan respectively. In 2021, the sales expenses were 1.064 billion yuan (+ 13.56%), R & D expenses were 913 million yuan (+ 22.80%), and management expenses were 339 million yuan (+ 8.82%). On the whole, the company’s revenue has achieved steady growth, and there are two main reasons for the fluctuation at the profit level: ① in recurrent projects, the strong investment in sales expenses and R & D expenses; ② In non economic projects, the fair value of Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) held by the company decreased significantly compared with the same period in 2020.
The performance forecast of the first quarter was released, and Q1 turned into a loss due to market fluctuations and macro factors. The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 22q1 will be 240290 million yuan, deducting the non net profit loss of 50-70 million yuan. Among them, the decline in the fair value of Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) held by the company in Q1 affected by market fluctuations will have an impact on the net profit of about 190220 million yuan. The epidemic has affected the product sales and delayed the delivery of some transportation solution projects.
The smart transportation business grew steadily, and the forward-looking layout was progressing smoothly. The company’s smart transportation business (excluding the contribution of video products from subsidiaries) achieved a revenue of 4.231 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.02%. After deducting the impact of etc products and the demolition of provincial toll stations, the revenue of smart transportation business increased by 19.52% year-on-year. Among them, the revenue from urban transportation business is 1.451 billion yuan, the revenue from intercity transportation business is 2.463 billion yuan, and the revenue from other businesses is 317million yuan. The revenue of transportation cloud business was 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.3%, and the gross profit of cloud products increased by about 2%. In the second half of the year, the company successively won several landmark projects, including the comprehensive improvement project of urban perception in Dali Prefecture (960 million), the smart expressway project in Tianshui section of Gansu Province (640 million), the smart parking project in Nankai District of Tianjin (300 million), etc. In terms of automotive electronics, the company entered into the network domain automotive electronics business by increasing its capital and shares in Lianlu intelligent during the year. Lianlu intelligent vehicle side business developed rapidly. Hundreds of thousands of front mounted 4gt box products were delivered in 2021. Two 5gv box fixed-point projects are planned to be mass produced in 2022, and the etc front mounted business has an order requirement of 200000 vehicles in 2022.
The business performance of intelligent IOT is beautiful, and the upstream pressure leads to the pressure on the gross profit margin. The intelligent IOT business (including the sales of some IOT products in the field of Intelligent Transportation) achieved a revenue of 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.11%. Among them, PBG business is basically the same as that in 2020, with EBG revenue increasing by 19.2% and overseas growth of 27.9%. The gross profit margin of intelligent IOT business was 31.25%, down 2.55 PCT year-on-year, mainly affected by the price rise of upstream semiconductors and other components.
[investment suggestions]
The company is a leading intelligent transportation and intelligent IOT company in China. It has been deeply engaged in the intelligent transportation industry for many years. It has completed the full business layout of traffic segments such as urban transportation, highway transportation and rail transportation, leading the development of sports car networking industry. The company’s profit forecast for 20232024 is lowered due to the introduction of macro factors. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the operating revenue of the company will be RMB 12.040/14.242/16.996 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 881/11.13/1.301 billion respectively, the EPS will be RMB 0.56/0.70/0.82 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 18 / 15 / 12 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
[risk tips]
Share price fluctuation risk of participating companies;
Market competition intensifies risks;
Risk that the progress of vehicle networking construction is less than expected;
The epidemic situation affects the rhythm and risk of the project.
