\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 908 Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 923 / 79 / 62 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44% / 71% / 96%, which was in line with the performance express. Non economic mainly includes government subsidies of 4.23 million yuan, financial income of 9.2 million yuan, forward contract income of 9.82 million yuan, income tax impact of - 5.64 million yuan, etc. 21q4 revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 199 / 07 / 00.4 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 51% / turnaround / turnaround, and accelerated growth of revenue month on month. The cash dividend per share is 0.9 yuan, with a dividend rate of 76.35% and a dividend rate of 2%. The company released the financial budget report for 2022. It is estimated that the revenue / net profit in 22 years will be 1.28/120 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 38.64% / 52.64%, the gross profit margin will be 26.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8pct, and the net profit margin will be 9.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9pct.
Analysis and judgment:
The high growth of export sales has continued for two years. In 2021, the company's export sales revenue was 615 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28%. The company's export sales increased by 29% in 20 years. The export sales have continued to grow beautifully for two years, breaking the previous law of "big and small years". The export revenue of 21q4 was 97 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month on month increase (the year-on-year growth of 21q1 / 2 / 3 was 18% / 48% / 12% respectively), which is also in line with our previous judgment that Q3 is mainly a base disturbance and does not change the steady trend of the whole year.
Brand business: Damu increased by 156% and Q4 accelerated month on month. In 2021, the domestic sales revenue was 306 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90%, and the domestic sales revenue in 21q4 was 100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 96%, accelerating the growth month on month (the revenue growth rate in 21q3 was 88%). In terms of splitting, the income of Damu (Online + group purchase) / Xiaomu (direct + franchise) was RMB 220 million / 86 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 156% / 15%, of which the income of Damu online / group purchase was RMB 109 / 111 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 126% / 193%; Xiaomu's direct sales / franchise income was 28 / 58 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21% / 12% (the number of Direct stores / store efficiency increased by 25% / - 3% to 30 / 930000 yuan respectively, and the number of franchise stores / store efficiency increased by - 21% / 42% to 196 / 300000 yuan respectively). In a single quarter, the income growth rate of 21q4 big animal husbandry / small animal husbandry was 78 / 22 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 172% / - 1%, and the growth of big animal husbandry accelerated month on month (the growth rate of 21q3 was 118%). We analyzed that the decline of small animal husbandry income was mainly affected by the closing of stores, and the direct sales / franchises of 21q4 small animal husbandry closed 2 / 11 respectively.
The decrease of gross profit margin was affected by the export business, and the gross profit margin of Damu business increased by 6pct. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 24.83%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.66pct, mainly from the decline of export gross profit margin. In 21 years, the gross profit margin of export / brand business was 20% / 34% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 3PCT / increase of 1PCT. We analyze that the decline of export gross profit margin is mainly affected by the rise of freight, raw materials and exchange rate. From the perspective of brand business splitting, the gross profit margin of Da mu / Xiao Mu was 32% / 39% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6pct / decrease of 1PCT. The gross profit margin of 21q4 was 26.52%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.27pct and a month on month increase of 1.34pct.
The income tax rate decreased by 6pct. The net interest rate in 2021 was 8.51%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.36pct, mainly due to the decrease of expense rate, the increase of investment income and the decrease of income tax rate. In terms of expense ratio, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio was 5.8% / 6.1% / 2.8% / 0.9% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4/0.3/0.6/0.5pct. The net investment income / income was 2%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8pct, mainly from the disposal of trading financial assets, dividend distribution income of subsidiaries and financial management income. The net interest rate of 21q4 was 3.6%, increased by 6.3pct year-on-year and decreased by 6.07pct month on month. It was still profitable in the off-season. The income / income from changes in fair value was 0%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1pct, mainly due to the decrease in the income from changes in fair value generated by derivative financial instruments. The company's income tax rate in 21 years was 16%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6pct. Our analysis is mainly due to the subsidiary's obtaining the certification of high-tech enterprises and the deductible loss of unrecognized deferred income tax assets in the early stage of use.
Investment advice
In the short term, (1) the epidemic has spread seriously since the middle and late March, which is good for the camping demand. We estimate that the growth of Damu Q1 line has more than doubled; The company continued to launch new products. In 22 years, the company launched Lansheng series tents. The products use Oxford cloth to solve the problem of yellowing and mildew of cotton curtains. The floor is 2 meters high and can be opened on all sides. It can also be used in combination with other tents. The price is also higher than the previous tent categories, and the price is about 4000 yuan. (2) OEM business: there are sufficient orders. We estimate that it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 20-30% in 2022.
In the medium term, the company announced the change of the raised investment project on January 7, which changed Xiaomu's store opening project into expanding Damu's storage, that is, from 16000 m2 to 46000 m2 in five years, and the corresponding storage area CAGR = 24%, boosting market confidence.
In the long run, the current domestic / export revenue accounts for 3:7, the future domestic sales is expected to account for more than half, and the superimposed net interest rate is expected to improve to more than 15%. Considering the accelerated penetration of the epidemic, the income in 202223 will be increased from 1.256/1.537 billion yuan to 1.256/1.621 billion yuan, the new 24-year income will be 1.978 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother in 202223 will be increased from 125 / 160 million yuan to 125 / 171 million yuan, the new 24-year net profit attributable to the mother will be 217 million yuan, the corresponding EPS will be adjusted from 1.88/2.4 yuan to 1.87/2.57 yuan, the new 24-year EPS will be 3.25 yuan, the closing price on April 11, 2022 will be 41.24 yuan, and the corresponding PE in 22-24 years will be 22 / 16 / 13X respectively, Maintain the "buy" rating. For the valuation of the standard peer snowpeak, if the brand business of Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) 22 is 30-45 times and the OEM is 20 times, the corresponding target market value is 3-3.79 billion yuan and the target price is 45-56.8 yuan.
Risk tips
The product iteration is not as expected, the epidemic situation is uncertain, the supply of campsites is not as expected, and there are systemic risks.
