\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 711 Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) )
Core conclusion
Fifteen years of deep cultivation, with IGBT, fed chip design ability and module packaging ability. The company’s main products include modules / single tubes / chips, which are used in industrial control / new energy / household appliances and other fields. The company has made great breakthroughs in the new energy track, with a revenue of 523 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 57.76%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 64 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 139.62%. As the new production line is put into operation and converted into fixed assets, the gross profit margin of the company is 22.14% in the first three quarters of 2021, which is under pressure. In the future, with the increase of the proportion of revenue in the field of high gross profit new energy, the proportion of self-developed chips and the appearance of large-scale effect, the profitability of the company will continue to improve. The downstream application of IGBT has a high boom and welcomes the great opportunity of domestic production. According to our estimation, in 2025, the market scale of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle / charging pile / IGBT in photovoltaic field is expected to reach 10.074/52.62/2.860 billion yuan respectively. Due to the late start of power in China, the IGBT industry is highly concentrated in overseas manufacturers, and China’s IGBT self-sufficiency rate was only 10% in 2015. Under the influence of core shortage and trade friction, coupled with the suspension of technology iteration in recent years, the intergenerational gap between Chinese and international products has gradually narrowed. Yole expects that the self-sufficiency rate of IGBT is expected to reach 40% by 2024, and macro micro and other enterprises mastering core technologies will fully benefit.
Product iteration and category expansion two wheel drive. The company has won orders from key customers in the photovoltaic field; Cooperate with Tier1 manufacturer zhenqu technology in the field of vehicle regulation to introduce brand customers; In the field of industrial control, we have maintained steady cooperation with Huichuan, Delta and other enterprises, and the orders are relatively full. The company’s self-developed IGBT and Fred chips have achieved technological catch-up with Chinese and foreign enterprises, and have successively passed customer certification. The proportion of IGBT self-developed chips in the revenue of IGBT modules has increased from 32.36% in 2018 to 53.69% in 2020, which is expected to gradually realize domestic replacement. The company has maintained long-term and stable cooperation with the OEM. At the same time, the R & D of module packaging capacity, new generation silicon-based IGBT and silicon carbide projects raised and invested are expected to realize the dual drive of product iteration and category expansion.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202123 will be RMB 64 / 93 / 143 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 139.6% / + 45.4% / + 54.3%. Considering that the company’s business has entered the starting stage of the new energy track and its performance is expected to maintain high growth for a long time, it is given 100 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target share price of 94 yuan, which is covered for the first time, and the rating of “overweight” is given to the company.
Risk tips: technology upgrading and product iteration, dependence on important suppliers, macroeconomic fluctuation risk.
