\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event overview: on April 11, 2022, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the production and sales express in March, and the automobile output in Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) March was 104000, with a year-on-year increase of – 5.5% / month on month increase of + 47.2%; In March, the automobile sales volume was 100900, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.9% / month on month increase of + 42.6%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 15100, a month on month increase of + 129.4%.
Chip supply has eased, and the marginal improvement of sales volume is imminent. The company sold 82500 passenger cars in March, with a year-on-year ratio of – 7.1% / month on month ratio of + 39.4%, which was stronger than the industry performance (according to the data of the passenger Federation, the sales volume of narrow passenger cars in March was 1.814 million, with a year-on-year ratio of – 1.6% / month on month ratio of + 23.6%), mainly due to the easing of the company’s chip supply. In terms of brands, the sales of Haval / tank / Euler / wey / pickup truck were 5.45/0.89/1.43/0.4818500 respectively, with a month on month increase of + 29.9% / + 37.9% / + 127.8% / + 7.3% / + 58.6%, of which the marginal growth of Euler and pickup truck sales was obvious. At present, affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, many parts suppliers of the company are affected, but the impact is relatively short-term. We expect the impact of the chip and epidemic from May to June to improve.
The strong product cycle has been opened, and the demand for high-end personalized models continues to be strong. In terms of key models by brand: 1) Haval: the sales volume of H6 was 21600, with a year-on-year increase of – 38.0% / month on month increase of + 10.3%. The cumulative sales volume from January to march was 76800, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.4%; The sales volume of big dogs was 9300, with a year-on-year increase of + 54.5% / month on month increase of + 25.5%, and the product strength has been continuously verified; The sales volume of divine beasts was 4600, with a chain comparison of – 8.2%; 2) Tanks: the sales volume of tank 300 is 8900, with a year-on-year increase of + 78.3% / month on month increase of + 37.9%. The medium and large commercial luxury SUV tank 500 has been officially launched in March, and the first batch of vehicles is expected to be delivered in mid and late April; 3) Euler: the sales volume of good cats was 6400, with a year-on-year increase of + 201.2% / month on month increase of + 56.8%; 4) Pickup: the Great Wall cannon sold 14500 vehicles, with a month on month increase of + 70.4%, ranking the champion in pickup sales; 5) Wey: the sales volume of the star model latte DHT of Wei brand coffee series reached 2576 units, with a month on month increase of + 8%, impacting the high-end new energy market with more than 300000 yuan. In the first quarter, the proportion of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) intelligent models increased to 84.5%, and the proportion of models of three major technology brands exceeded 70%, constantly promoting the brand upward.
Overseas markets are blooming at many points, and the export of heavy models is expected to drive sales up. In March, overseas sales reached 10500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.8% / month on month increase of + 74.5%, accounting for 10.4% of the total sales. The cumulative sales from January to March were 29300 vehicles. In 2021, the third generation Haval H6, Haval jolion, Great Wall cannon and other global products were listed in multiple overseas markets. The company sold nearly 140000 vehicles overseas, with a revenue of 16.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 142.2%. According to the latest disclosure of the data of the South African Automobile Industry Association, in January and February 2022, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) third generation Haval H6 occupied 15% of the compact SUV market segment in South Africa, and continued to maintain the first sales volume in the local market segment. From March 21 to April 3, Haval H6 HEV, Haval H6 PHEV, Haval jolion HEV and Euler cat appeared at the international auto show in Bangkok, Thailand. Euler cat GT and tank 300 HEV concept cars were exhibited for the first time in the Thai market. A variety of new energy models such as pure electric, oil electric hybrid and plug-in hybrid have successively landed in the overseas market, which is expected to drive the further increase of overseas sales.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 95.49/156.57/18.878 billion respectively, corresponding to 24 / 14 / 12 times of the current share price PE respectively. Optimistic about the company’s electric intelligent development and multi brand strategic development, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
