\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 319 Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) )
Exclusive exploration of tetanus vaccine adult market, rapid and large-scale verification of products, excellent marketing and promotion ability of the company
The company has been deeply engaged in the vaccine industry for many years, keenly aware of the great differences between Chinese and overseas adult tetanus vaccine immunization procedures, and has exclusively explored the adult tetanus vaccine market. After the launch of the company's products in 2017, the company strengthened the promotion and promoted the adsorbed tetanus vaccine to the emergency department, dog injury department and other departments of the hospital. Tetanus vaccine is the company's first product developed, listed and commercially sold, which helps the company successfully turn losses into profits. At the same time, the smooth promotion and rapid volume of vaccine products also verify the excellent marketing and promotion ability of the company.
AC Hib triple vaccine will be applied for production soon. It is expected to be listed in 2023 and is expected to become a billion level variety
Sanlian Miao is the second heavy variety of the company, which is expected to be applied for in 2022 and approved for listing in 2023. We believe that triple vaccine is a potential variety of children's vaccine in China. Compared with other similar multiple vaccines, such as quadruple vaccine and quintuple vaccine, the company's triple vaccine has a strong competitive advantage. We expect that the company's triple vaccine is expected to be approved for listing in 2023. At that time, it is expected to bring new increment to the company and become another heavy vaccine product listed and sold by the company in addition to tetanus vaccine.
"Standing on the shoulders of giants", Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to become the world's first super bacterial vaccine and fill the gap in the world
"Superbacteria" is a global public health security issue, and vaccines are effective means to control infection and spread. Staphylococcus aureus is a superbacterium. The national bacterial drug resistance monitoring in 2020 showed that the national average detection rate of clinical isolates was nearly 30%. At present, there is no Staphylococcus aureus vaccine approved for listing in the world. The recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine developed by the company in cooperation with the Army Military Medical University belongs to class 1 innovative vaccine. It is the only recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine that has entered clinical trials in China. It has obtained the summary report of phase II clinical trials, and the safety and immunogenicity data are good. By comprehensively studying the technical path of overseas Staphylococcus aureus vaccine development and the design of clinical trial scheme, the company analyzes and summarizes the causes of failure, and designs and develops recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine on this basis. We believe that the company has fully considered the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine design and clinical scheme, and the subsequent clinical phase III pass rate and approved listing success rate of the product are high. It is expected to be approved for listing in 2025, and the market scale of Staphylococcus aureus vaccine (orthopaedic indications) is expected to reach 1 billion yuan in 2030.
Profit forecast
Considering that the tetanus vaccine of the company is currently in the rapid mass production period, and another heavy variety of AC Hib triple vaccine of the company is expected to be approved for listing in 2023, and considering that the company has more relevant research and research and development expenses. We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 487, 641 and 917 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52.1%, 31.6% and 43.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111, 128 and 213 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 206.0%, 15.4% and 67.0%; EPS is 0.30, 0.35 and 0.58 yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 20.37 yuan / share on April 8, 2022, PE is 67 / 58 / 35, which is covered for the first time and rated as "overweight".
Risk tips
The sales and promotion of tetanus vaccine is less than the expected risk; Risk that the marketing progress and sales of AC Hib vaccine are less than expected; Risk of failure in the development of Staphylococcus aureus vaccine.
