\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 123 Montnets Cloud Technology Group Co.Ltd(002123) )
Recently, the company issued several announcements. On April 7, 2022, the company won the bid for the long number SMS service project of China postal savings bank. On April 8, the company signed the business cooperation agreement with Huawei cloud.
The cooperation of Huawei cloud improves the sales potential and is expected to bring about changes in the business model. The agreement signed between the company and Huawei cloud stipulates that the company will provide intelligent information terminal analysis capability, technical support and other services. This cooperation is expected to bring two benefits to the company: one is to help the company improve the business scale of 5g rich media news. Huawei cloud has gathered more than 30000 partners around the world, developed 2.6 million developers and more than 6000 service and operation partners. With the help of relevant customer resources, the company is expected to provide products and services to a large number of b-end customers and quickly open the market. Second, it has brought end-to-end new channel industry opportunities. This cooperation is based on Intelligent Information aim +, according to the terminal analysis, in addition to the traditional short message function, it also supports one-stop capabilities such as interaction and payment, which can realize the distribution of micro services, fully reflects the advantages of 5g messages and more effectively supports customers' marketing activities. At the same time, this cooperation is expected to bring changes to the business model. The way of successful volume billing shows that the company's business model is changing to SaaS mode, which is also one of the important changes brought by 5g message to the company. 5g message has the ability to provide customers with platform + services. In the face of friends and operators, it outputs more platform capabilities, and the charging form may also change. The company said that in the long-term expansion of 5g news in the future, it will not only build its own cloud communication platform, but also help operators build the platform.
5g messaging business has developed rapidly, expanding overseas and enhancing long-term potential. 1) Important bid winning: the company's wholly-owned subsidiary won the bid for the long number short message service project of Postal Savings Bank of China, which shows the company's own technical strength and market position on the one hand, and will also play a positive role in future performance on the other hand. 2) 5g news was actively promoted: in 2021, the business volume of 5g rich media messages increased by 300% year-on-year, that of 2022q1 increased by 159.92% year-on-year and 28.72% month on month. The company's SMS applet has covered 400 million users, and the applications of operators, governments and hospitals have begun to be implemented. It is expected to cover 600700 million users by the end of the year, corresponding to 60-70% of mobile phone users. 3) Continuous progress has been made in overseas business: after reserving technology and talents, the company has strengthened the development of overseas business, helped Chinese enterprises go to sea, and arranged local operations. It has been successfully arranged in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Australia and other places.
Investment suggestion: the commercialization of 5g news continues to advance, and the company, as a leading enterprise, is expected to benefit for a long time. During the 5g promotion period, the company's performance was under short-term pressure due to cost investment and other reasons, but 5g news business progressed rapidly, and the short-term pressure on performance did not change the long-term expectation. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be -234177/278 million yuan, and the corresponding PE will be /, 58x and 37x respectively. As there is an opportunity for the company's business model to change to SaaS mode at present, we select Beijing Jiaxun Feihong Electrical Co.Ltd(300213) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) as comparable companies. The average PE (wind unanimously expected) of relevant companies in 2022 is 60x. The company has certain valuation advantages, so it maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the commercial progress of 5g message is not as expected, and the application form of the industry may change
