\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 888 Xinjiang Joinworld Co.Ltd(600888) )
Event overview: on April 11, the company released the performance forecast of 2022q1. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 to be 370 ~ 390 million yuan, an increase of 225 ~ 245 million yuan over the same period of last year; In 2022q1, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted from 373 ~ 393 million, an increase of 239 ~ 259 million yuan over the same period of last year.
Analysis and judgment: the price of main products is high, the demand is strong, and the investment income has increased significantly. In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 was 370 ~ 390 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 155.2% ~ 169.0% and a significant month on month increase of 40.7% ~ 48.3%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 373 ~ 393 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 178.4% ~ 193.3% and a month on month change of - 2.4% ~ 2.9%. Reasons for performance changes: 1) price: the price of main products of 2022q1 company increased compared with the same period last year, and the sales revenue and gross profit of main products increased year-on-year. Electronic aluminum foil, electrode foil and other new electronic material products benefited from strong downstream demand, and the price rose year-on-year; The average spot aluminum price of the Yangtze River in 2022q1 was 22190 yuan / ton, up 11% month on month and 37% year-on-year; 2) Volume: in order to meet the strong demand of downstream, the company seizes market opportunities, strengthens market development, taps potential and improves efficiency, and the non-public offering projects continue to be constructed in large quantities in 2019. We expect the sales volume of the company's electrode foil products to increase year-on-year; 3) The company's equity participation in Tianchi energy benefited from the high coal price in Q1, the significant growth of net profit and the significant increase of the company's investment income; Tianchi energy has coal and power generation businesses. The company's complete industrial chain can effectively hedge the pressure of rising energy costs to a certain extent.
It is not only a comprehensive supplier of China's electronic grade high-end aluminum, but also "China's top 100 electronic components enterprises". The complete industrial chain, profound technology accumulation and continuous expansion of production will benefit the company from new energy, semiconductor and aviation Addsino Co.Ltd(000547) opportunities. 1) The company has formed an electronic new material circular economy industrial chain of "energy - (primary) high-purity aluminum - high-purity aluminum / alloy products - electronic aluminum foil - electrode foil". It has a primary high-purity aluminum production capacity of 180000 tons, a high-purity aluminum liquid production capacity of 55000 tons, an electronic aluminum foil production capacity of 35000 tons and an electrode foil production capacity of 23 million square meters. 2) At present, electrode foil used in new energy related fields accounts for 20-30% of the company's sales of electrode foil. The company's non-public offering project in 2019 will expand the production of 15 million square meters into foil, which will benefit from the growth of demand in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power; 3) The company's share allotment project in 2021 will expand the production capacity of 15000 tons of high-purity aluminum, 500 tons of ultra-high-purity aluminum based sputtering target blank (applied to semiconductor chips, flat panel displays, etc.), 3000 tons of strong and high toughness aluminum alloy large section billet (applied to aerospace field). The high gross margin will bring high elasticity to the company's performance.
Investment suggestion: the company is one of the largest high-purity aluminum manufacturers in China, with a long history, profound technology accumulation, complete industrial chain layout, cost of ownership and technical advantages. The layout of the company in new electronic materials and new military materials will bring stable profit growth to the company. We believe that the company is not only a manufacturer of traditional aluminum products with a long history, but also a supplier of new electronic materials with strong technical strength. We believe that with the launch of the company's new material investment project, the company may usher in the double improvement of net profit and valuation. We raised the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 1.369 billion yuan, 1.498 billion yuan and 1.658 billion yuan, EPS to 1.02 yuan, 1.11 yuan and 1.23 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on April 11 was 8, 7 and 6 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price of aluminum has fallen sharply, and the progress of the project is less than expected; The price of electrode foil fell sharply
