\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
The revenue end of 21q4 was dragged down by bulk, but the retail end performed well
We estimate that the company's bulk revenue in 21q4 in a single quarter is 450 million (- 49%), and the retail (including package) is 2.713 billion (+ 14%), with good retail performance.
The reason why the profit of 21q4 reduction caliber fell more is that: (1) the price of upstream raw materials increased, and the company did not raise the price of terminals in order to compete for market share; (2) The personnel expenses of the whole outfit and milanna business department increased, and there were more subsidies for dealers to load samples. (3) 21q4 company launched the whole customization, and some advertising expenses increased.
The performance of clothing and kitchen was steady, the wooden door business increased rapidly, and the income of single store increased rapidly
By business:
(1) the revenue of wardrobe and accessories is 8.27 billion (+ 1.46%), 2730 stores (+ 11), and the gross profit margin is 35.71%; (2) Kitchen cabinet revenue of 1.42 billion (+ 17.25%), 1122 stores (+ 14); (3) Mumen has a revenue of 458 million (+ 55.36%), 799 stores (+ 217); (4) bulk business of 1.604 billion (+ 6.6%), accounting for 15.41%, of which Hengda has 625 million; The retail channel revenue is 8.803 billion (+28.5%), corresponding to a single store revenue of 1.89 million yuan (compared with 20 years +17%, compared with 19 years +2%).
The layout of the new business is smooth
Consolidation channel: in the 21st year, the revenue of dealer channel + company direct signing channel consolidation business was 529 million (74 million in the 20th year), and 394 million was completed in the second half of the year. In the 22nd year, the company set a growth target of about 50%.
Milanna: as a young, fashionable and cost-effective brand of the company, it attracted investment rapidly after its launch in March 21. At the end of 21, 212 stores were opened, and the acceptance is estimated to be about 100 million.
In the past 22 years, the whole customization strategy has been promoted, and active marketing has become more radical
Looking forward to 22 years, the whole customization is expected to drive retail growth: in December 21, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) released the whole customization strategy, and the end customer unit value increased from the current 3 Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) 000 yuan to 60000 yuan in the C6 plan, moving forward from selling products to selling space. Although the renovation progress of 22q1 stores was dragged down by the epidemic, the effect of 315 drainage in this round is still good. It is optimistic that the follow-up will drive the performance quarter by quarter. Enhance the executive power of internal management decisions, carry bags and pack new traffic channels; The enthusiasm of dealers has been substantially mobilized, and the training of marketing skills & playing methods has been increased, so as to be optimistic about the improvement of inbound passenger flow and conversion rate.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) will usher in an inflection point in operation in 22 years. The retail end will rely on the Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) whole customization strategy and Milana light fashion brand. At the same time, the bulk business will stabilize and optimize the customer structure. We expect to achieve revenue of 12.21/14.48/17 billion respectively in 22-24 years, with a same increase of 17.33% / 18.6% / 17.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.414/16.86/1.988 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 1054% / + 19.2% / + 17.93%, and the corresponding PE was 13.16x/11x/9.36x. After Evergrande's influence on the business weakened, it is expected that the company's valuation is expected to be repaired and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: channel expansion failed to meet expectations, and real estate regulation exceeded expectations
