\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Key investment points
Event: in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 3.063 billion yuan (+ 4.81%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 522 million yuan (- 40.69%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 483 million yuan (- 43.41%).
Comments:
The sharp rise in costs led to a decline in Q1 profitability. Since 2022, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil price, the price of glass raw fuel has continued to rise. The national average price of soda ash in Q1 is about 2544 yuan / ton, up about 61% year-on-year; At the same time, the price of petroleum coke also rose sharply. Taking the price of petroleum coke of Qingdao Petrochemical as an example, the average price of Q1 was about 3804 yuan / ton, an increase of about 1805 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. The sharp rise in cost lowered the company's profitability. The gross profit margin of Q1 was 34.41%, a year-on-year decrease of about 17.3 PCT; From the price side, the average price of float glass in 2022q1 is about 2219 yuan / ton, up about 3 yuan / ton year-on-year, and the overall price level remains fairly high. Looking ahead to the float glass industry in 2022, the current overall pressure on the real estate and the impact of repeated epidemics have caused the float glass to fluctuate at a low level. We believe that in the second quarter, with the marginal improvement of the epidemic, the suppressed demand is expected to be released intensively, and the float glass price will start a new round of price rise. At the same time, with the rising cost of raw fuels such as soda ash, petroleum coke and natural gas, the cost gap between leading enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises has widened.
Increase raw fuel reserves, Q1 net operating cash flow outflow slightly. The company's net operating cash flow in the first quarter was -35 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 104.07%, mainly due to the sharp rise in the prices of soda ash, petroleum coke and other raw fuels year-on-year, and the increase in cash expenditure caused by the company's increase in raw fuel reserves; At the end of the reporting period, the company's monetary capital and trading financial assets were about 5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 211.6%, the company's asset liability ratio was only 34.47%, and the balance sheet was constantly repaired; On the whole, the company's cash is still abundant. On the one hand, it supports the rapid expansion of the industrial chain and ensures the steady progress of various businesses; On the other hand, the company has maintained a high dividend ratio to repay shareholders in the past three years. In 2022, the company plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB 8.0 (including tax) to shareholders for every 10 shares with undistributed profits, and the cash dividend ratio is 50.71%.
Accelerate the expansion of photovoltaic capacity and create new performance growth points. We believe that the company has actively laid out the photovoltaic field, embraced the new energy track, and built the second main business of photovoltaic, which is beginning to take shape. According to the company's photovoltaic glass construction plan, in the early stage, the company has planned to build five 1200 T / D production lines and supporting deep-processing production lines in Chenzhou, Hunan, Zhangzhou, Fujian, Shaoxing, Zhejiang and Ningbo, Zhejiang. At the same time, it plans to build two 1200 T / D production lines in Malaysia. In addition, the company plans to build another 1200 T / D production line (phase II) in Dongshan Zhangzhou base and four 1200 T / D production lines in Zhaotong, Yunnan, It is expected that by 2025, regardless of the production capacity of float conversion, the company's photovoltaic glass production capacity will also reach 14400 tons / day. In the future, the company's photovoltaic glass production capacity will jump to the top of the industry. With the continuous production of photovoltaic glass production capacity, it will bring new performance growth points. On the one hand, the establishment of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects can reduce the cost of power generation; On the other hand, the company has accumulated experience in the construction and operation of photovoltaic power stations. In the future, under the background of double carbon, the company is expected to lay out the photovoltaic field at a deeper level.
Electronic glass and medicine glass are advancing steadily, and the product structure is expected to be continuously optimized in the future. The company's electronic glass technology path has basically achieved a breakthrough. At present, it strives to improve market share and brand effect, and actively promotes the construction of phase II production line; At the same time, the first phase of neutral borosilicate medicinal glass has been put into commercial operation in October 21, and some products have been mass produced and sold. At present, the construction of phase II production line project is also being promoted; Electronic glass and neutral borosilicate tube have broad domestic substitution space. Relying on the advantages of resources, channels and costs, the company is expected to emerge suddenly. In the future, the product structure will be more optimized, high-end products will improve the company's competitive barriers, and the overall valuation is expected to rise.
Investment suggestion: the company accelerates the expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity, and the extension of industrial chain opens up future growth. We maintain the company's performance of RMB 3.92 billion, 5.03 billion and 6.11 billion from 2022 to 2024, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.46, 1.87 and 2.27 respectively, and corresponding PE valuation of 9, 7 and 5.7 times respectively; Maintain the "buy" rating and maintain the target price range of 20.44-21.9 yuan.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials continues to rise, and the cost pressure intensifies; Real estate investment is significantly lower than expected; The progress of new business development is less than expected; Environmental protection supervision was relaxed, and the withdrawal progress of production capacity was less than expected.
