\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 049 Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) )
Event: the company issued 2021 performance express and 2022q1 performance forecast.
2021: in 2021, the company’s revenue (5.243 billion yuan, year-on-year + 63.35%), net profit attributable to the parent (1.954 billion yuan, year-on-year + 142.28%), net profit not attributable to the parent (1.796 billion yuan, year-on-year + 158.10%). In a single quarter, 2021q4 company achieved revenue (RMB 1.552 billion, year-on-year + 63.42%, month on month + 3.69%), net profit attributable to parent company (RMB 496 million, year-on-year + 307.34%, month on month – 14.69%) and net profit not attributable to parent company (RMB 437 million, year-on-year + 510.43%, month on month – 21.52%).
In 2021, the company achieved significant growth in revenue and profitability. The downstream demand for special integrated circuits and intelligent security chips continued to grow. Driven by factors such as scale effect and the increase in the proportion of high value-added products, the profitability of the company continued to improve, and the net interest rate was achieved in 2021 (36.58%, year-on-year + 11.93 PCT). Specifically, China’s microelectronics, which is mainly engaged in special integrated circuits, has maintained rapid growth and continued to contribute stable profits; While the same core micro income scale of smart security chips increases, the profitability continues to improve; The revenue of Ziguang Tongchuang, which is mainly engaged in general FPGA, has increased rapidly and turned losses into profits.
2022q1: net profit attributable to parent company (510 ~ 550 million yuan, year-on-year + 57.54% ~ 69.90%, month on month + 2.74 ~ 10.80%), net profit not attributable to parent company (490 ~ 530 million yuan, year-on-year + 59.01% ~ 71.99%, month on month + 12.10% ~ 21.25%). The company’s performance increased significantly year-on-year and month on month. On the one hand, when China microelectronics contributed to the main performance of listed companies, this reflected the high vision of special integrated circuits. As the core card position enterprise of China’s special chips, the performance of China microelectronics also further verified the high vision of special equipment; In addition, Tongxin micro and Ziguang Tongchuang also achieved rapid growth.
1. China microelectronics: the leader of domestic special chips, which is the core card enterprise of high growth subdivision track of special equipment.
1) rapid growth of special chip industry: China’s special equipment has entered the period of large-scale construction, and the value of equipment informatization has been continuously improved due to the upgrading of mechanization to informatization. In addition, with the localization of special chips, we expect the scale of China’s special digital chip industry to exceed 40% in the next five years. 2) High barriers: special chips have strict market access barriers and a development cycle of at least 5-7 years. Therefore, China’s Microelectronic special chips have a high market share in aviation, communication and other sub circuits, and will usher in high growth with high certainty in the future.
3) performance elasticity: as an IC design enterprise, it has high performance elasticity under the effect of scale. From 2017 to 2020, China’s microelectronics revenue grew at a compound growth rate of 48.24% and net profit at a compound growth rate of 63.48%. It is one of the enterprises with the strongest growth momentum in the special equipment sector.
4) product expansion: high R & D investment drives product line expansion (such as SOPC), benefiting from information construction for a long time.
2. Same core micro: the pioneer of national governance digitization, the industrial ecological scale continues to expand, and an increasingly complete brand matrix including safety chip, power management chip, on-board control chip, NFC chip and intelligent identification chip is formed. 1) Based on the present: Tongxin micro has become one of the main security chip suppliers in finance, communication, electronic certificate and other industries. With the withdrawal of overseas competitors, SIM card products ushered in a performance reversal: in 2021h1, Tongxin micro realized a revenue of 639 million yuan (year-on-year + 29.22%), and a net profit of 38 million yuan (year-on-year + 238.11%). 2) Looking forward to the future: many fields (Internet of things, 5g, cloud computing, big data, on-board control, payment, etc.) of digital national governance are being laid out, or will become the vanguard of digital national governance. Placement of high-end chips and on-board controller chips in convertible bond raised investment projects: high-end security chip projects meet the growing demand for security chips in emerging markets such as Internet of things, 5g, cloud computing and big data; The on-board controller chip project aims to realize the independent control of on-board controller chip.
Payment field: the nfc-sim card payment method laid out by the same core micro has a broad market space. We calculate that the annual market space of NFC chip is about 3 billion yuan.
3. Ziguang Tongchuang: a joint-stock subsidiary and a leading FPGA enterprise in China. According to elecfans data, the market scale of China’s general-purpose FPGA was about 10 billion yuan in 2018, but it was mainly supplied by overseas enterprises, and the market share of Chinese manufacturers was only 3%. As the leader of general-purpose FPGA in China, Ziguang Tongchuang has achieved technological breakthrough and mass supply in communication and other fields. In 2021, it has made important progress in the fields of video image processing, industrial control and consumer market, and has achieved profitability. With its leading position in FPGA in China, we think its value can not be ignored.
Investment suggestion: the future development of the company mainly comes from the high-speed growth of special chips of microelectronics in China, the strategy of one core micro in the field of national governance digitization, and Ziguang Tongchuang. It is a leading enterprise of general FPGA in China. Based on the performance forecast of the company in 2021, we raised the profit forecast again. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.954 billion yuan, 3.053 billion yuan and 4.087 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding valuations of 54x, 35x and 26x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the debt problem of the group, the application expansion of high-profile special equipment and intelligent security chip is less than expected.
