\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Performance review
On April 11, the company announced that the revenue in 2021 and 20221 was 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 929 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.35%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 799 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.95%. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 334 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.46%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 308 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.57%.
Business analysis
The operation ability is stable and the risk resistance is prominent. Sunflower seeds and nuts increased by 5.86% and 43.82% respectively year-on-year. Melon seed business maintained steady growth. Nuts opened channels of fruit stores and community stores in 21 years. At present, the growth momentum is strong. South / North / East / e-commerce / overseas / others increased by 3.6% / 21.7% / 18.8% / 11.0% / 10.2% / 64.6% respectively year-on-year, and the company continued to make efforts in the north and East China markets. Q4's revenue growth rate is high. On the one hand, there are reasons for the dislocation of the Spring Festival; On the other hand, the smooth price increase of melon seeds also contributed to some increment. Throughout the year, sales volume contributed 9.5% growth, and structural upgrading and price increase contributed 3.3% growth.
The gross profit margin was slightly optimized and the price increase was conducted smoothly. In 21 years, the company's gross profit margin was + 0.06pct to 31.96% year-on-year and + 5.24pct to 33.44% year-on-year in 21q4, mainly due to the successful price increase of Q4 melon seed business. The gross profit margins of sunflower seeds and nuts were 34.13% / 29.26% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.78/0.97pct; The gross profit margin of nuts also increased slightly, which is expected to be related to the slight reduction of procurement costs and the contraction of online price war. The company's sales / management / financial expense ratio in 21 years was + 0.33 / - 0.15 / - 0.03pct year-on-year respectively, and that in 21q4 was + 5.59 / - 0.13 / - 0.40pct year-on-year respectively. The increase in Q4 sales expense is expected to be related to price increase and preparation for the peak season of the spring Festival. The net interest rate of 21 years was + 0.31pct to 15.53% year-on-year, and that of 21q4 was -0.90pct to 15.90% year-on-year.
22 year growth certainty can be expected. Melon seeds continue to penetrate vulnerable channels, nut power community stores and other emerging channels. It is expected that Guokui and nuts can achieve growth of about 15% and more than 35% respectively in 22 years. The increase of raw materials in the latest purchasing season is 5-10%. The price increase can basically cover the cost pressure and release a certain profit elasticity.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be 1.123/13.02/1.478 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 21% / 16% / 14%, corresponding EPS of 2.21/2.57/2.92 yuan and PE of 26 / 22 / 19x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Industry competition intensifies; Food safety issues; Price changes of raw materials; The promotion of new products was less than expected.
