\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event:
The company issued a business announcement. In 2021, it achieved an operating revenue of 19.971 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 42.75%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.314 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 72.56%, and EPS of 4.37 yuan; In the first quarter, the total operating revenue is expected to be about 10.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about + 70%.
Key investment points:
2021 ends smoothly, and 2021q4 has the ability to control and retain goods. In 2021, the company achieved the phased goal of leapfrog development, with an annual revenue of nearly 20 billion, slightly lower than the market expectation; Thanks to the optimization of product structure and the contraction of expenses, the annual net interest rate was 26.61%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.6pct. 2021q4 company achieved an operating revenue of 2.714 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 24.79%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 435 million, a year-on-year decrease of – 24.90%, which was mainly due to the significant growth of performance in the first three quarters of 2021. 2021q4 company took the initiative to control the volume, the channel inventory fell to the lowest in history, and the price system and dealer profits were at a good level in history, laying a solid foundation for a good start in 2022. Based on the overall situation of Q4 and Q1, the revenue / profit of 2021q4 + 2022q1 increased by about 21% / 50% year-on-year respectively.
2022q1 continued its high growth and its performance exceeded expectations. At the beginning of this year, the company’s collection and sales exceeded expectations, the Spring Festival sales were benign, and the bottle opening rate remained at a high level. The repeated epidemics have not had much impact on the company. The key markets in the province and around Shanxi are basically stable, and the medium and high-end products such as blue and white have achieved substantial growth. With the effective control of superimposed expenses, the net interest rate in 2021q1 is expected to reach 35.2%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.5pct. Previously, the company released the operating data from January to February 2022, and the operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company exceeded 7.4 billion / 2.7 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 35% / 50% respectively; Based on this calculation, the company’s performance accelerated month on month in March 2022, realizing operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of about 3.1 billion / 1 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of about 68% / 162%.
A good start has been reached as scheduled, and high-quality development will continue in 2022. After the new chairman yuan Qingmao took office, he put forward the new requirements of taking advantage of the victory to pursue the pursuit and comprehensively promote the high-quality development of Fenjiu. Since 2022, the company has actively carried out work around “Four Focuses” and “four insistences”, focused on structural adjustment and continued to focus on “three sectors” in layout. The company is one of the few liquor enterprises that can simultaneously form a large volume at various prices, such as sub high-end, medium high-end and light bottle liquor below 100 yuan. With the continuous release of blue and white potential energy, the upgrading of product structure will be the main focus in the future. At the same time, Fenjiu is still a well deserved fragrant dragon head with profound brand heritage. The company has maintained sound and healthy development in the provincial market, and constantly optimized and upgraded on the basis of regional expansion outside the province. With the increasing demand for high-quality production capacity, in March 2022, the company announced that it would invest 9.102 billion in the construction of Fenjiu 2030 technical transformation original wine production and storage expansion project (phase I). The construction period is planned to be three years. After completion, it can increase the annual output of 51000 tons of original wine and 134400 tons of original wine energy storage. The growth of new production and storage capacity will help the company move forward to high quality on the basis of scale expansion. After the national reform, the company has made leaps and bounds in internal management, organization team and marketing system, and continues to be optimistic about the company’s high-quality growth under the trend dividend of the industry and the improvement of its own operation.
The product structure of profit forecast and investment rating has been continuously optimized. There are bright spots inside and outside the province, and the long-term growth trend is clear. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.36/6.23/8.00 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 53 / 37 / 29 times respectively, giving a “buy” rating.
The risk indicates that the epidemic situation repeatedly affects consumer demand; Increased market competition leads to increased costs; The expansion or dynamic sales outside the province are less than expected; The sharp fluctuations of the economy caused the price of high-end Baijiu to decline, squeezing the demand for high-end products. Food safety risks.
