\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
Performance review
On April 11, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 10.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 89.7% to 120 million yuan year-on-year (excluding the impairment effect of 910 million yuan accrued for Evergrande, – 15.7% year-on-year). Among them, 4q’s revenue was – 2.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent (excluding the impact of impairment) was – 63.0% year-on-year. The dividend plan for 2021 is to pay out 6 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Business analysis
The main reason for the decline of 4q’s revenue is that Evergrande’s business is excluded: from the perspective of channels, the company’s sales revenue of distribution / bulk / direct sales channels in 21 years increased from + 28.0% / + 6.6% / + 36.9% to 83.6/16.0/340 million yuan respectively year-on-year, of which the revenue of packaged channels was 530 million yuan, and the expansion was smooth. The main reason for the decline of 4q revenue was that excluding Evergrande business, the revenue of 4q bulk channels was – 42.5% to 440 million yuan year-on-year, while the growth rate of retail channels (direct sales + distribution) slowed slightly to 7.1% due to the large base. In terms of products, the growth of wardrobe / wardrobe / wood in 21 years was + 23.4% / + 17.3% / + 56.9% year-on-year respectively. In addition to being driven by the increase of customer unit price (year-on-year + 9.6%), the expansion of new channels such as bag carrying and packaging is also an important driving factor. In addition, in terms of the number of stores, the number of clothes / wardrobe / wood ( Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) + Huahe) stores increased by 11 / 14 / 217 respectively in 2021. Among them, after two consecutive quarters of net closing, 4q opened 32 stores. On the whole, the effect of adjustment and optimization of the company is gradually reflected.
The gross profit margin of 4q is under pressure and is expected to be gradually repaired in 22 years: the gross profit margin of the company in 21 years is – 3.4pct to 33.2% year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin of 4q is – 5.5pct to 28.8% year-on-year, which is mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials in the second half of the year and the company’s failure to raise prices and the sharp increase of SKUs in the short term, resulting in the reduction of production efficiency. Considering that the company has raised the price of some products in 22 years and the production efficiency will be improved, it is expected that the profitability of the company in 22 years will be gradually repaired. In terms of expense rate, the overall expense rate of the company during the 21 years was + 0.8pct to 20.2% year-on-year, and the expense rate during 4q was + 5.3pct to 19.9%, of which the sales expense rate of 4q was + 3.5pct to 10.1% year-on-year, and the management expense rate (including R & D) was + 1.2pct to 8.9% year-on-year.
The improvement of governance is positive, and the performance is expected to speed up quarter by quarter: in the second half of the year, the company introduced general manager Yang Xin, the former head of European style wardrobe. After taking office, he solved the core problems restricting the development of the company, such as the backward product power of the company, the lagging development of new channels and the lack of dealer empowerment management, and made drastic and in-depth adjustments to the management and executive personnel, so as to ensure the overall executive power. At present, the company’s products, channel empowerment and other aspects have improved significantly. With the synchronous promotion of the “whole family customization” strategy and a number of adjustments, the company’s performance is expected to accelerate quarter by quarter.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company’s EPS to be 1.51 yuan / 1.88 yuan / 2.28 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 13, 11 and 9 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks in China; Industry competition intensifies; The expansion of packaging channels was less than expected.
