\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 290 Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) )
Key points
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 1.706 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.22%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 398 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.49%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 378 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 143.27%. The company’s 4q21 operating revenue was 510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 132 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 183.22%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 127 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 217.55%.
Comments:
The company’s vehicle regulation level IGBT module continued to increase in volume, and the revenue proportion of class A and above models further increased. In 2021, the company’s production of vehicle specification level IGBT modules applied to the main motor controller continued to increase, supporting more than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) new energy vehicles, including more than 150000 class A and above models. At the same time, the company’s share of semiconductor devices in new energy vehicles such as vehicle air conditioner, charging pile and electronic power steering was further increased.
In 2021, the vehicle specification level IGBT module applied to the main motor controller produced by the company began to support the overseas market in large quantities. It is expected that the overseas market share will be further increased in 2022.
The global sales of pure electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles increased by 6.75% year-on-year. Bloomberg predicts that the sales volume of electric vehicles will continue to grow in 2022, reaching about 10 million. China is the world’s largest new energy vehicle market. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively in 2021. The China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million in 2022. According to the development plan of energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0 revised and prepared under the leadership of China Society of automotive engineering, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles (including pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles and energy-saving vehicles) will reach about 50% of the total sales of new vehicles. The demand for vehicle IGBT will increase rapidly with the rapid development of new energy vehicle market.
IGBT modules and discrete devices are installed in batch in the field of photovoltaic power generation, and the market share will increase rapidly. In the field of photovoltaic power generation in 2021, the company used its own 650V / 1200V IGBT chips and modules and discrete devices supporting fast recovery diode chips to install and apply in large quantities in China’s mainstream photovoltaic inverter customers. It is expected that the market share will increase rapidly in 2022.
Under the background of “double carbon” strategy, the new energy industry is developing rapidly: (1) the photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly: according to the prediction of China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), the global photovoltaic installed capacity will be 130gw in 2020. By 2025, the global newly added photovoltaic installed capacity is conservatively estimated to be 270gw and optimistically estimated to reach 330gw, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 20%; (2) Rapid development of wind power industry: according to GWEC report, the global installed capacity of new wind power will be 93gw in 2020, and it is expected that the global installed capacity of new wind power will be 469.3gw from 2021 to 2025; (3) Rapid development of energy storage industry: according to the latest report of global energy storage outlook released by Bloomberg new energy finance, the global online large-scale energy storage capacity is 17gw by the end of 2020, and US $262 billion has been invested in 345gw energy storage devices under construction. By 2030, the cumulative installed capacity will reach 358gw.
SiC module has added a number of fixed-point projects, which has brought continuous impetus to the company’s long-term performance growth. In 2021, the company continued to layout wide bandgap power semiconductor devices. Various SiC modules launched in locomotive traction auxiliary power supply system, controller of new energy vehicle industry and photovoltaic industry have been further promoted and applied. In the field of new energy vehicles, the company has added several main motor controller project points of 800V system using all SiC MOSFET modules, which will provide a continuous driving force for the company’s SiC module sales growth from 2023 to 2029.
The company continues to make new breakthroughs in the sixth and seventh generation IGBT. In 2021, the company’s 650V / 750V vehicle specification level IGBT module based on the sixth generation trench field stop technology will add multiple fixed points of double electric control hybrid and pure electric vehicle main motor controller platform, and 1200V vehicle specification level IGBT module will add multiple fixed points of 800V system pure electric vehicle main motor controller project, which will provide a continuous driving force for the company’s new energy vehicle IGBT module sales growth from 2023 to 2029.
In 2021, the 1200V and 1700V IGBT chips based on the sixth generation trench field stop technology were mass produced on the 12 inch production line, and the output of 12 inch IGBT chips increased rapidly. In 2021, the company successfully developed a new generation of 650V / 750V / 1200V IGBT chip based on the seventh generation micro trench field stop technology. It is expected to start mass supply in 2022.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we are optimistic about the company’s rapid development in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, industrial control and other fields in the next few years. Based on the company’s rapid progress in vehicle regulation IGBT, we raised the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2023 to 27.15 (+ 53.67%) and 3.908 (+ 66.58%) billion yuan respectively, and raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 657 (+ 81.13%) and 926 (+ 93.98%) billion yuan respectively. The new operating revenue in 2024 is predicted to be 5.415 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is predicted to be 1.270 billion yuan. The current market value corresponds to 90x, 64x and 47x PE from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: technology and product R & D risks; Trade environment impact.
