\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 659 Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) )
Performance review
On April 11, 2022, the company announced that the revenue of 2022q1 was RMB 3.13 billion, a month on month increase of + 15%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 637 million, a month on month increase of + 23%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 613 million, a month on month increase of + 19.3%, the gross profit margin was 38.7%, a month on month increase of + 3.7%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 20.3%, and a month on month increase of + 1.2%.
Business analysis
The performance is in line with expectations and the business blossoms at many points. We expect that the company's 22q1 negative pole will ship about 27000 tons, with a month on month increase of + 8%, and the negative pole of power battery accounts for 70%. The profit per ton will increase slightly to 12500 / ton, mainly due to the continuous realization of the price rise of 21q4 negative pole & the company has rich reserves of raw materials in the early stage, which is less affected by the price rise of raw materials. We expect the coating shipment to be about 750800 million square meters, and the single average profit is flat month on month, about 0.2 yuan / square meter. It is estimated that PVDF will ship about 1200 tons and contribute about 70 million equity net profit.
Negative electrode: the new graphitization capacity is gradually released, and the integrated layout is accelerated. At present, the company has a graphitization capacity of 65000 tons and a graphitization capacity of 50000 tons in Inner Mongolia. Trial production has been started. It is expected that the climbing will be completed in 22q2, and it is expected to contribute about 35000 tons of graphitization capacity increment in the whole year. We expect that the negative electrode shipment of the company will be about 160000 tons in 22 years, and the corresponding graphitization self supply rate is expected to reach more than 60%. Sichuan integration project is expected to be added at the end of the year 22. 265000 tons of negative electrode corresponding to 215000 tons of graphitization will be formed after the project is completed, and the self supply rate will reach 80%. 400000 tons of negative electrode capacity is expected to be formed by the end of the year 24.
Membrane materials: coating develops overseas markets, and the base membrane has been in large quantities in 22 years. Coating: the company has a production capacity of 4 billion flat coating, 8000 tons of nano alumina and boehmite and 5000 tons of PVDF. It is expected to enter Korean customers in 22 years, and it is expected that 4 billion flat coating will be shipped in 22 years. Base membrane: at present, it has a capacity of 100million square meters. The equipment purchase has been completed for 400million square meters of diaphragm capacity. It is expected to ship 100million square meters in 22 years. By the end of 24, it is expected to form 1.3 billion square meters of base film, 10 billion square meters of coating diaphragm processing capacity and 25000 tons of PVDF.
Equipment: full orders in hand. At present, the company has 4 billion orders for hand coater equipment (including internal sales) and 1.1 billion orders for new automation equipment products, which is expected to be gradually confirmed in 22-24 years. Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 3.03 billion, 4.41 billion and 5.85 billion respectively (the previous values were 2.97 billion, 4.41 billion and 5.85 billion), the corresponding EPS was 4.32, 6.35 and 8.42, and the corresponding PE was 32.3, 22.0 and 16.6 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Lower than expected risks in downstream demand, deterioration of industrial competition pattern, lower than expected risks in company capacity construction, lower than expected risks in new customer expansion, lifting of restricted shares and exchange risks.
