\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.718 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 143.60%, which was in the median value of performance forecast and in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company's revenue was 7.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.37%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.6%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.567 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.17%; In 2021, the gross profit margin was 49.86%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.23 PCT; The net interest rate of sales was 728.8% year-on-year. The company previously predicted that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2.66-2.76 billion yuan, which was in the median of the performance forecast and in line with market expectations.
In 2021, Q4 company realized a net profit attributable to its parent company of 962 million yuan, an increase of 36% month on month. In 2021, Q4 company achieved a revenue of 2.643 billion yuan, an increase of 55.34% year-on-year and 35.89% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 962 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 103.81% and a month on month increase of 36.44%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 939 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 117.82% and a month on month increase of 45.62%. In terms of profitability, Q4 gross profit margin was 53.07%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.43pct and a month on month increase of 3.10pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 36.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.66pct and a month on month increase of 0.15pct; The net interest rate deducted from non parent company was 35.51%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.19pct and a month on month increase of 2.37pct. The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 865950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100% - 120%. The accrual of bonus will affect the month on month growth.
In 2022q1, the volume rose sharply year-on-year, and the annual shipment in 2022 is expected to maintain a high growth of 80% + year-on-year. The company shipped more than 3 billion square meters in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 130% +, and the corresponding single average selling price was 2.3 yuan / square + (tax included), which was flat and slightly decreased year-on-year. We calculated that the corresponding annual single average net profit was nearly 0.87 yuan / square, which was flat year-on-year; Among them, the company's 2021q4 diaphragm is expected to sell 1.05 billion Ping +, with a month on month ratio of + 30%. The single flat return profit of Q4 diaphragm to the parent company is nearly 0.9 yuan / Ping, with a month on month increase of about 5%, and the diaphragm business volume is rising at the same time. The company expects to ship 1.1 billion square meters in 2022q1, with a ring increase of about 10%, a year-on-year increase of 140% +, and the production scheduling in April further improved month on month.
The company's capacity expansion is leading, the product structure is further improved, and the layout of dry process diaphragm and aluminum-plastic film will contribute new increment in the future. In 2022, the industry is in short supply, the industrial capacity utilization rate remains high, the company's capacity expansion speed is leading, and the production scheduling continues to rise. We expect the production capacity of master coil to reach about 7.5 billion square meters by the end of 2022; Considering the acceleration of the company's capacity release, the annual shipment in 2022 was revised up to about 5.5 billion square meters, an increase of 80% year-on-year. In terms of customers, we expect the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) demand to more than double in 2022, the proportion of overseas customers will further increase to about 30%, and the coating proportion is expected to further increase to about 40% in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the accelerated implementation of the company's production capacity, we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 5.01171429676 billion (originally expected to be RMB 5.067034 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 84% / 43% / 35%, and the corresponding PE values are 36 / 25 / 19x respectively, giving 55xpe in 2022 and the corresponding target price of 309.1 yuan. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected
