\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 089 Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it achieved an operating revenue of 61.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.95%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 191.72%, which is in the upper range of performance forecast (6.8 ~ 7.3 billion yuan); In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131.26%; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.58 yuan per share (including tax).
The sales volume and price of silicon materials have risen simultaneously, and the operation of new energy power stations has driven the rapid growth of electricity revenue. In 2021, the company sold about 75000 tons of silicon materials, and the sales unit price (before tax) was about 170000 yuan / ton. The volume and price increased together, which increased the sales revenue of silicon materials by 15.8% to 11.575 billion yuan year-on-year; The operating income of superimposed ECC construction increased by 5.11% to 7.761 billion yuan year-on-year, driving the operating income of the company’s new energy industry and supporting projects increased by 63.88% to 19.969 billion yuan year-on-year, and the gross profit margin increased by 24.59 PCT to 40.14% year-on-year. In addition, the operation scale of the company’s new energy power station increased from 830mw at the end of 2020 to 2255mw at the end of 2021 (1725mw wind power and 530mw photovoltaic power), driving the company’s electricity revenue to increase by 28.80% year-on-year to 3.983 billion yuan.
The capacity of silicon material will be expanded, and the price of silicon material will remain high in 22 years. In 2022, the company will complete the construction of Xinjiang technological transformation and Baotou phase I 100000 t / a project, and the total production capacity of the company will be increased to 200000 t / a by the end of the year (the estimated shipment is about 120000 T); Under the background of increasing demand boom, we expect that the annual average price of silicon material in 2022 is expected to further increase. In the future, with the commissioning of Zhundong phase I Project (100000 t / a) in 2023 and the successive commissioning of Baotou phase II (100000 t / a) and Zhundong phase II (100000 t / a), the company’s total silicon production capacity is expected to reach 500000 T / A in 2025.
The State Grid’s “14th five year plan” UHV plan exceeded expectations, the progress of overseas projects recovered after the epidemic, and the company’s power transmission and transformation business performance is expected to maintain a high growth. China’s UHV construction is expected to speed up during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The company leads the industry in the market share of UHV Transformer Products (the historical bid winning rate is 25 ~ 30%), and its self-developed ± 1100kV UHV converter transformer and other products have been listed in the list of the first major technical equipment projects in the energy field, and a breakthrough has been made in the key technology of UHV DC bushing; In the future, with the scale of UHV construction exceeding expectations, after the superposition of the epidemic, the company’s complete overseas power transmission and transformation project business will advance smoothly, and the company’s power transmission and transformation business is expected to maintain a high growth.
Maintain the “buy” rating: according to the company’s production expansion rhythm, the judgment on the future silicon price, the superposition of the State Grid’s accelerated promotion of UHV construction and other reasons, we raised the profit forecast for 22-23 years and introduced the 24-year profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 11.515138.78/12.824 billion (up 10% / up 10% / new), corresponding to eps3.5 billion 04 / 3.66/3.38 yuan, the current share price corresponds to 6 / 5 / 6 times of PE in 22-24 years. The two main businesses of the company (new energy industry and supporting projects, and power transmission and transformation business) are in an important position in the energy system dominated by new energy power generation under the background of carbon neutrality. The company is a leader in the above businesses. In the future, with the improvement of the prosperity of the industry, the company will maintain steady growth and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the production capacity and sales volume of silicon material are lower than expected; The new installed capacity of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected; Overseas business operation risk.
