\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 254 Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) )
Record high performance: Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) released the annual report for 21 years. The company achieved a revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 80.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 270.4%. In 2021, the main products are spandex and aramid, which are in high popularity. In terms of sectors, the spandex sector achieved a revenue of 2.82 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 35.5%, an increase of 19.5 PCT year-on-year; The aramid sector achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 40.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4 PCT.
Optimization cost of spandex: the price of spandex will remain high in 2021, with an average price of 67424 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 118.2%. The company promotes the dual base strategy of Yantai and Ningxia, takes advantage of Ningxia's energy advantages and optimizes costs. At the same time, continue to optimize the industrial layout, dynamically adjust the product structure, and give priority to ensuring the supply of high-profit products. The company has an effective capacity of 50000 tons of spandex and a capacity under construction of 45000 tons. Although the price of spandex decreased in 2022, the new capacity can supplement the price to a certain extent.
Aramid fiber is the main growth point: in the first three quarters of 2021, affected by the economic recovery in the post epidemic era, the early preparation of goods downstream of the EU tariff increase, the rise in the price of bulk materials and other factors, the supply in the field of optical communication is in short supply, driving the demand for para aramid fiber. With the introduction of mandatory standards in the field of personal protection in China, the sales volume of meta aramid fiber has also increased significantly. In 2021, the capacity utilization rate of aramid fiber of the company was 101.5%, and the supply was in short supply. The company has increased the capacity construction of aramid fiber. At present, it has 11500 tons of effective capacity of aramid fiber and 33000 tons of capacity under construction, further consolidating the leading position of aramid fiber.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Combined with the current prices of spandex and aramid, we adjusted the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 to 1.15, 1.57 and 2.04 yuan respectively (the original forecast was 0.99, 1.30 and - yuan). Using the segment valuation method, the average PE of spandex comparable companies in 22 years was 6 times, that of aramid comparable companies in 22 years was 33 times, that of spandex accounted for 48% and that of aramid accounted for 52%, corresponding to the target price of 23.10 yuan in 2022 (the original target price was 23.10 yuan), Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
Decline in product demand; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; The progress of the new project is less than expected.
