\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) official wechat announced that recently, through ISFH test, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) adopts TCO process with low indium content and silver clad copper gate wire to obtain 25.62% photoelectric conversion efficiency on full-size (m6274.5cm2) monocrystalline silicon heterojunction battery.
Core view: the new low indium and low silver process is adopted to significantly reduce the cost of hjt battery consumables. If the industrialization process is smooth, it will make a significant contribution to hjt becoming the next generation mainstream battery technology as soon as possible Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) actively promote the ecological construction of the whole industrial chain of hjt. In addition to the continuous improvement in the performance of the whole line equipment, the application of azo instead of ITO and silver clad copper technology in the laboratory is a positive improvement in the coordination of materials Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) with a comprehensive understanding of the underlying technology of hjt, it is positioned not only as an equipment supplier, but also as a complete set of process solutions provider in the future market competition. In the process of deeply participating in the ecological construction of the industrial chain, Mai has done research and development to be close to manufacturing, and its competitive advantage has been increasingly consolidated.
The two processes of low indium and low silver significantly reduce the manufacturing cost, and the cost of hjt battery is expected to be basically the same as that of perc. According to the official wechat of the company, the low indium content solution reduces the single indium consumption by 50% compared with the original basis, and the superposition equipment indium reduction scheme can reduce the total indium consumption by 70%; The application of silver clad copper grid wire reduces the silver consumption by 55%. According to solarzoom’s calculation, as of August 2020, the single w non silicon cost of hjt and perc batteries is 0.42 yuan / W and 0.25 yuan / W respectively. According to the splitting of the non silicon cost of hjt battery in director Wang Wenjing’s “hjt battery technology development status and cost analysis”, the proportion of silver slurry, target, gas, chemicals and screen sector is 59%, 14%, 10%, 10% and 7% respectively. Therefore, we calculate that the reduction of indium consumption by 70% corresponds to the reduction of target cost by 0.041 yuan / w (0.42 14% 70%), the reduction of silver consumption by 55% corresponds to the reduction of silver slurry cost by 0.136 yuan / w (0.42 59% 55%), and the total reduction of non silicon cost is about 0.177 yuan / W. Therefore, the calculation shows that the application of low Indium & low silver process can reduce the non silicon cost of hjt battery from 0.42 yuan / w to 0.24 yuan / W, realizing the comparative advantage of perc non silicon cost.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue scale from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.32 billion yuan, 6.20 billion yuan and 8.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.4%, 43.7% and 43.5% respectively, and the net profit will be 856 million yuan, 1.258 billion yuan and 1.792 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.2%, 46.9% and 42.4% respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 60, 41 and 29 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of “Buy-A”, and the six-month target price is 610 yuan, which is equivalent to 37 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2024.
Risk warning: the new downstream installed capacity is less than expected; The commercialization progress of hjt is less than expected; Competition in the equipment industry has intensified.
