\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 116 Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy And Electric Power Co.Ltd(600116) )
Key investment points
Event: 1) the company released the performance express, and realized a revenue of 10.177 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 93.62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 865 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.55%; After deduction, it was 682 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.12%. 2) The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 08-12 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95% to 92%; After deduction, it was 118144 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19% to 1%.
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the growth mainly comes from the changes in the fair value of power + electrolytic manganese + fixed increase shares. According to the content of the company’s performance express, the revenue in 2021 was 10.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 865 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.55%; After deducting non-profit, it was RMB 682million, with a year-on-year increase of 56.12%. Overall, the company’s performance in 2021 was in line with expectations. The growth mainly comes from: 1) power business: the electricity sales was 13.218 billion kwh, an increase of 16.71%; Among them, the self generating capacity was 2.781 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.62%; The average selling price of electricity was 0.4388 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.74%. 2) Electrolytic manganese business: the market price of electrolytic manganese rose in 2021, and the sales revenue and profit of electrolytic manganese increased year-on-year. However, at the same time, the company shut down its subordinate Chongqing Wuling Manganese Industry Co., Ltd. in accordance with the policy requirements, and scrapped some of its assets and inventory materials, thus reducing the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company. 3) Participate in Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co.Ltd(600452) fixed increase, and the profit and loss of changes in fair value caused by changes in share price.
The performance of 2022q1 was disturbed by non profit and loss and electrolytic manganese business, and the profit of power sales business increased significantly. According to the performance forecast of the company’s first quarterly report in 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 08-12 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95% to 92%; After deduction, it was 118144 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19% to 1%. Among them: 1) the profitability of power business has been greatly improved: in 2022, the power sales in Q1 was 2.986 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.20% (mainly due to the shutdown of Chongqing manganese mine business and the impact of the production rhythm of new projects of Chongqing regional industrial customers), of which the self generated power was 416 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 24.33%; The average selling price of electricity was 0.4933 yuan / kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 17.82%. We infer that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company’s electricity sales business increased by about 100% compared with the same period in 2021, with a significant increase in profitability.
2) electrolytic manganese business was affected by shutdown and planned shutdown: according to the company’s announcement, Q1 in 2022 was affected by the shutdown of Chongqing manganese mine and the planned shutdown of Guizhou manganese mine, and the business profit decreased year-on-year. We infer that compared with 2021, Q1 profit decreased by 50-100 million yuan. 3) Non operating profit and loss: the non recurring profit and loss of the company is mainly the loss from changes in the fair value of non-public offering shares of listed companies invested in 2021. At the end of last year, the fair value of the non-public offering shares held by the company in the secondary market experienced a large increase in 2021, and there was a large decline in 2022q1. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2022 Q1 will be about 157 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we adjusted the company’s EPS forecast from 2021 to 2023 from 0.44, 0.53 and 0.63 to 0.45, 0.57 and 0.69 yuan, corresponding to 23, 18 and 15 times of PE from 2021 to 2023 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the macroeconomic downturn weakens the power demand of terminal industry, and the incoming water fluctuates greatly
