\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company released the main financial data of 2021 and the announcement of main business conditions in the first quarter of 2022. It is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 19.971 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 42.75%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 5.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.56%. According to the company's preliminary accounting, in the first quarter of 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 43% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 3.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 70%.
21 years ended smoothly, and the first quarter of 22 years made a good start. In 2021, the company continued to deepen the "1357 + 10" market layout, and the structure of 31 provinces and regions + 10 directly subordinate regions flattened the regional management. The number of Fenjiu distributors increased from less than 1000 in 2017 to 2944, the number of terminals controlled increased from less than 10000 in 2017 to about 1 million in 2021, and the number of markets with more than 100 million yuan in China increased from 8 in 2017 to 28. Due to the strict control of goods in the fourth quarter of 21, the revenue in the fourth quarter decreased by 24.79% year-on-year, but the annual revenue still increased by 42.75%. Combined with the previously announced business announcement from January to February, it is expected that the revenue confirmed in March of 22 will be 3.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 162%. The reporting end is faster than the market expectation, and the actual sales will be affected due to the epidemic.
The revival edition has entered a large-scale period, and the blue and white series continue to enhance the brand power. After preliminary preparation and publicity, the company increased the launch of the revival version this year. In Shanxi, consumers highly recognize the high-end products of Fenjiu. In addition, the company has increased the development and group purchase operation of large enterprises, and the Fuxing version has squeezed the market share of other competitive products with a price of 1000 yuan, consolidating its competitive advantage; In Henan, Shandong and other base markets, Qing 20 is already a best-selling product, and the revival version also has a certain self-reliance rate at the terminal; In the southern market, Fuxing version has gradually introduced high-quality terminals and established a high-end brand image. Although the wholesale price of Fuxing version fluctuates slightly during the peak Spring Festival season, the current wholesale price has picked up and continues to be optimistic that Fuxing version will become another important brand in the 1000 yuan price belt.
Reform continued to deepen and structural upgrading released profit elasticity. After the reform of state-owned enterprises, Fenjiu's ability in all aspects has been significantly improved. Under the leadership of the new chairman, the reform is still continuing: the company selects young cadres from mature markets to weak regions, and the marketing organization has been optimized; Layout new production capacity at the production end, strengthen the coordination of production, supply and marketing under the epidemic situation, and ensure supply; Fenjiu has been leading in the sales of e-commerce channels, and will pay more attention to the operation of Fenjiu e-commerce in the future. In the past 22 years, with the sharp increase in the proportion of blue and white series, the profit elasticity is expected to be released. Even if the epidemic affects some consumption scenes, Fen Liquor is still one of the brands most willing to pay for it, and it is expected to continue the high-speed growth momentum after the epidemic.
The reform dividend was continuously released, the nationalization and high-end were progressing smoothly, and the "overweight" rating was maintained. The company's performance in the first quarter of 22 years is bright and the growth momentum is good. It is expected that the company's operating revenue will be 199.71/270.45/33.837 billion yuan respectively from 21 to 23 years, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 53.14/78.87/10.298 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 4.36/6.46/8.44 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 52.77x/35.55x/27.23x, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the national expansion is less than expected, and the high-end process is less than expected
