\u3000\u30003 Lijiang Yulong Tourism Co.Ltd(002033) 00203)
High end scientific instruments have large market space, low localization rate and large domestic substitution space. In 2020, the market scale of mass spectrometer, chromatograph and spectrometer in China is about 14.2 billion yuan, 10.7 billion yuan and 6.7 billion yuan. According to the statistics of scientific instrument procurement data of more than 2 million yuan by the national development and Reform Commission from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of domestic mass spectrometry equipment is only 1.19%, and the proportion of spectrum chromatography is only 0.24%. China urgently needs the rise of excellent scientific instrument enterprises.
With the accumulation of more than ten years, the research and development platform of high-end scientific instruments of the subsidiary spectral education technology has been gradually improved. After 16 years of research and development, spectral education technology, a 75% owned subsidiary of spotlight, has mastered relatively complete mass spectrometry, chromatography, spectroscopy, physicochemical and other analysis and detection technologies and gas, liquid, solid and other sample injection pretreatment technologies, developed a series of technologically leading product combinations such as laboratory analysis, on-site analysis (portable, online, mobile) and automatic analysis, and many technologies such as triple four-stage rod have filled the gap in China.
The application field of the company's core products continues to extend to the high-end. The company started from industrial testing and achieved rapid development in the field of environmental monitoring. In recent years, with the enrichment of the company's product matrix and the improvement of performance, the business has gradually expanded to high-end fields such as medical diagnosis, semiconductor and life science. Recently, the company's LCMS / MS was approved with class II medical device registration certificate, breaking the long-term monopoly of foreign liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry manufacturers on China's medical industry in this field.
Build an overall solution platform to achieve differentiated competition with standard products. At present, the company has launched "fully automatic laboratory 4.0", which realizes the whole process of unattended automatic analysis from sample preparation, sample separation, weighing, pretreatment, automatic injection, analysis and report. It is expected that "fully automatic laboratory 4.0" will play an important role in solving the ease of use of clinical mass spectrometry and reducing the pollution source of semiconductor detection.
Investment advice and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be -164 / 229 / 399 million yuan. Among them, the net profit of PHYU technology from 2021 to 2023 is 140 / 226 / 316 million yuan. With reference to the 61 times PE given by comparable companies in 2022, corresponding to 13.76 billion yuan. After deducting 25.45% minority shareholders' equity, the corresponding valuation is 10.25 billion yuan. With reference to comparable companies, the assets of non spectral education are given 0.99 times Pb (as of 2021q3, the net assets attributable to the parent company of non spectral education are 3.54 billion yuan), and the valuation corresponds to 3.5 billion yuan. The total reasonable valuation of the company in 2022 is 13.75 billion yuan, corresponding to the share price of 30.39 yuan / share. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The industrialization progress is less than expected, the market competition intensifies, the import risk of core parts and components, the lower than expected downstream application demand, the impairment of goodwill, the reduction and equity freeze of the actual controller, the impairment risk of PPP, etc.
