\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Event: on April 12, the company released its annual report. In 2021, the company's revenue was 7.982 billion yuan, yoy + 86.37%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.718 billion yuan, yoy + 143.60%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.567 billion yuan, yoy + 159.17%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 2.643 billion yuan, yoy + 55.34%, mom + 35.89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 962 million yuan, yoy + 103.81%, mom + 36.44%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 938 million yuan, yoy + 117.82%, mom + 45.62%.
The leader of wet diaphragm is HENGQIANG, and the share will be increased in 2022. In 2021, the company shipped more than 3 billion square meters of wet diaphragm, accounting for 50% of China's wet diaphragm industry, and the share continued to increase. We expect Q4 company to sell 1.05 billion Ping +, exceeding expectations. Since 2021, the supply of diaphragm equipment has restricted the expansion of the industry, and the supply-demand relationship of diaphragm link is relatively tight. However, the company's equipment support + tapping its own production capacity has contributed to the main supply increment of the industry: by the end of 2021, the company's monthly output capacity reached 400 million square meters, corresponding to the annual actual production capacity of 4.8 billion square meters; In addition, the steel making Institute supplies 25-30 new lines every year to supplement 1 billion square meters + output capacity. We judge that the company's output this year is 5.8 billion square meters, and the company can increase its deterministic share.
Shan Ping's net profit continued to pick up, and online coating strengthened the pattern. We estimate that the company's Q4 single average net profit is 0.94 yuan, an increase of 5 cents month on month; Q1 is expected to continue to increase by 3-4 points month on month. In 2022, the company's online coating capacity will increase rapidly, which will promote the industry to enter a higher dimension of competition. The company significantly reduces costs through online coating. On the one hand, it makes customers feel the price reduction, on the other hand, it improves the proportion of coating products, improves profits through product structure upgrading, and consolidates the competitiveness of the company. In addition, the company's continuous capacity tapping, cost reduction and efficiency increase + continuous expansion of overseas customers are expected to boost the single average net profit. We judge that the single average net profit of the company is expected to reach 1 yuan in 2022.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 147.7/214.6/27.9 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 55.0/80.7/10.46 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 33 / 22 / 17 times of the current valuation. In view of the high barriers in the diaphragm field and the tight short-term supply and demand, the company's performance is expected to rise in both volume and profit, and maintain the "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk tip: the demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected, and the epidemic continues to impact the production and operation of the industrial chain
