\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
The cost of raw materials / energy is high, and the profit of 22q1 is under pressure in stages. On April 11, the company disclosed the first quarterly report. 22q1 company realized a revenue of 3.06 billion, yoy + 4.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 520 million, yoy-40.7%; The non deduction profit was 480 million, yoy-43.4%. The performance was slightly lower than expected, mainly affected by high raw material / energy prices.
The price of float glass decreases and increases. Although the cost is under pressure, it is controllable as a whole. We expect the sales volume of float glass of 22q1 company to decline by about 10% year-on-year, which is mainly affected by the tightening of real estate funds and the relatively weak demand side. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the cumulative completed area of houses from January to February was - 9.8% year-on-year. We judged that the average price of float glass of 22q1 company still increased year-on-year, driving a small increase in 22q1 revenue. In terms of price, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the average price of 22q1 national float flat glass (4.8 / 5mm) was 2222 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.6% over the same period of 21 years. Looking forward to 22 years, with the marginal easing of real estate policy, the demand side toughness still exists under the "guaranteed delivery"; At present, the capacity of production lines with kiln age of 8-10 years / 10-12 years / more accounts for 13.2% / 8.3% / 5.9%. Cold repair of production lines with old age in 2022 may lead to supply contraction; Under the dynamic balance of supply and demand, we expect the price to remain at a good level. On the cost side, according to wind data, the average middle price of 22q1 heavy soda ash is 2544 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 61% and a month on month increase of - 25%; The average price of LNG is 6466 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 48% and a month on month increase of + 1%. Under the high price of raw materials / energy, the company adopts strategic reserve / hedging and other methods to alleviate the situation. We expect that the cost side of the company will be under pressure in 22 years, but it is generally controllable.
The capacity expansion of photovoltaic glass is accelerated, and the price is still upward elastic. We expect that the company will put into operation 1 / 9 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines respectively in 22q2 / 23. We expect that the company will have a total capacity of 13000d / T outside China by the end of 23, and the capacity scale will rank among the first echelon of the industry. At present, there is still price elasticity at the bottom of the industry cycle of photovoltaic glass. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the mainstream quotation of 3.2mm coating on April 8 was 27.5 yuan / square, an increase of 6% month on month compared with last week. The company is the leader of float glass and is expected to achieve strong competitiveness in photovoltaic glass. On the one hand, in addition to changing production lines, the proposed photovoltaic glass production capacity of the company is 1200t / d large kiln furnace, the scale effect is expected to be further developed, and the ton cost is expected to remain at the level of first-line manufacturers; On the other hand, the company actively distributes silica sand mines, further extends the industrial chain and improves its comprehensive competitiveness. We expect that the proportion of photovoltaic glass revenue of the company is expected to exceed 10% / 20% / 40% from 2022 to 2024, which is expected to become the second growth curve.
Product diversification continues to advance, and the growth of energy-saving glass / electronic glass / medicine glass is expected to accelerate. In addition to architectural glass / photovoltaic glass, the company actively distributes emerging fields such as energy-saving glass / electronic glass / medicinal glass. In terms of energy-saving glass, with the commercial operation of Changxing energy conservation and Tianjin energy conservation, the growth has begun to accelerate. In terms of electronic glass, the company accelerated the construction of phase II project. With the active expansion of downstream channels, the market share is expected to increase steadily. With the announcement that the production capacity of the first phase of Chenzhou pharmaceutical glass kiln (25t / D) and the second phase of Chenzhou pharmaceutical glass kiln have been gradually put into operation, it is expected that the production capacity of the second phase of Chenzhou Pharmaceutical (40t / D) will be gradually increased.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be 39.0/46.5/5.62 billion (maintaining the original profit forecast), corresponding to 9 / 8 / 6 times of the current share price PE. Considering the long-term growth of the company, we maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; The new production capacity is less than expected; The expansion of new products was less than expected.
