\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Key investment points
Event: the company disclosed the main financial data of 2021 and the main operating conditions of the first quarter of 2022. It is expected to realize the revenue of 19.97 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 42.8%, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.6%, of which the revenue of single Q4 is 2.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 24.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 430 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 29.7%; In addition, the company expects to achieve a revenue of about 10.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 3.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 70%. The performance is in line with market expectations.
We have successfully made a good start and the strong growth potential can continue. 1. On the basis of better completion of tasks in the first three quarters of 2021, the company took the initiative to control goods and sort out channel inventory in the fourth quarter, resulting in a year-on-year decline in revenue; Relying on Nisheng's brand potential, the company overcame the adverse impact of the national sporadic epidemic outbreak in the first quarter, actively and flexibly adjusted marketing policies, carried out production and operation activities in an orderly manner, and achieved substantial growth in blue and white and other medium and high-end products, making a good start as scheduled. 2. The company firmly adheres to the strategy of "grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen". Blue and white series leads high growth. It is expected to increase by more than 50% year-on-year in the first quarter, driving the continuous optimization of product structure. The net interest rate of 22q1 increased by 5.5 percentage points year-on-year to 35.2%, and the profitability reached a record high; 3. Fenjiu's nationwide expansion is likely to continue. By the end of 2021, the company has 28 billion market nationwide, forming a "31 + 10" market layout; In terms of marketing, more than 300 new dealers were added throughout the year, and the proportion of big business and excellent business continued to increase. In addition, more than 80% of the heads of all sales regions are post-80s, and the marketing team is young and strong, with sufficient momentum for continuous improvement.
The expansion of production capacity will consolidate the foundation of quality and continue to be optimistic about future development. 1. In the first quarter, the macro-economy was under pressure, and the company's high growth showed strong resilience under the background of superimposing the scattered outbreak of the epidemic; Looking forward to the whole year, the company's product structure will blossom at many points, the national expansion will be unstoppable, the growth and stability will be good, and the growth rate will continue to lead the first-line famous wines. 2. Recently, the company plans to invest 9.1 billion yuan to implement the expansion project of original liquor production and storage of Fenjiu 2030 technical transformation (phase I). After the completion of the project, it is expected to increase the annual output of 51000 tons of original liquor and 134400 tons of original liquor storage. The project will effectively improve the original liquor production and storage capacity of Fenjiu. This expansion is not only the pursuit of scale, but also the overweight of quality, the support of brand and the upgrading of competitiveness, The improvement of the company's production and storage capacity directly contributes to the development of higher quality Fenjiu. 3. Mr. Yuan, the new chairman, has strong annual strength. In 2022, he took the improvement of brand value as the primary goal and took advantage of the trend to promote the higher quality development of Fenjiu. Mr. Yuan clearly put forward the "Four Focuses" and "four insistences" to promote the implementation of capacity expansion, improve the operation and management efficiency of the company, and the reform dividend is expected to be released continuously.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The release of the company's brand potential is accelerated and the national expansion is getting better. It is expected that the EPS will reach 4.35 yuan, 6.23 yuan and 8.50 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 53 times, 37 times and 27 times of the dynamic valuation, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic
