\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Key investment points
The annual operating income of the company was RMB 8.21 billion, with a year-on-year increase of RMB 8.61 billion in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.60%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.567 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.17%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue was 2.643 billion yuan. An increase of 55.34% year-on-year and 35.89% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 962 million yuan, an increase of 103.81% year-on-year and 36.45% month on month; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 939 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 117.81% and a month on month increase of 45.58%.
Lithium battery diaphragm: the increase in volume and price has greatly improved profitability. It is estimated that the company’s lithium battery diaphragm shipments in the fourth quarter exceeded 1 billion square meters, the annual shipments exceeded 3 billion square meters, and the corresponding unit profit was about 0.9 yuan / square meter. During the reporting period, the company launched the 200 million square meter coating project of Suzhou Jieli to expand the application scenarios of products and further improve the value of single products. By the end of 2021, 7 μ m+2 μ Taking m ceramic coated diaphragm as an example, the average price has reached 2.6 yuan / m2, an increase of 0.2 yuan / m2 compared with the end of the third quarter. The introduction of coating technology has further increased the profit space of the company. In the future, it is expected that the company will support online coating technology in a large area, increase the proportion of coated diaphragm shipments, and the profitability will continue to grow.
The company is deeply bound with customers and has strong certainty of future performance. In 2022, the company successively signed supply guarantee agreements with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , AVIC lithium battery, and promised to supply Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with a total amount of not less than 5.178 billion yuan of wet diaphragm in 2022, with a corresponding supply of about 3 billion square meters; It promises to supply AVIC innovation with a total amount of no more than 2.5 billion yuan, with a corresponding supply of about 500 million square meters. To sum up, the company has locked in about 3.5 billion square meters of lithium battery diaphragm shipments in 2022. In addition, the company signed a long-term supply agreement with an overseas large automobile enterprise and LG to lock large orders in advance. According to statistics, the production capacity of the company’s existing customers will reach 1400gwh by 2025, an increase of about 1000gwh compared with the end of 2020, corresponding to the annual demand for diaphragm of more than 15 billion square meters. In the future, the downstream demand will show explosive growth, and the company has huge development space.
The performance in the first quarter of 2022 still maintained a year-on-year high growth. The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022 and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 865950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 100.19% – 119.86% and a slight decrease month on month; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 835920 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 106.20%-127.19%. The corresponding shipment volume of 22q1 lithium battery diaphragm is 1 billion square meters. After the resumption of work, the shipment volume of 22q2 is expected to increase month on month to 1.4 billion square meters. The annual shipment expectation is slightly raised, which is expected to exceed 5.5 billion square meters.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.95 yuan, 8.42 yuan and 10.72 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 52% in the next three years. Considering the current high price of the company’s complementary products (lithium carbonate, etc.), the downstream demand fluctuates greatly in the short term, and the “hold” rating is maintained temporarily.
Risk warning: the risk that the company’s production capacity is not released on schedule; Risk of price fluctuation of main raw materials; The risk of intensified market competition; Risks of technological progress and product substitution; Risk of exchange rate changes.
