\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
The performance is in line with market expectations. The company’s operating revenue in 2021 was 10.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 89.7%. Excluding the impairment loss of 909 million yuan of Evergrande, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.5%. The operating revenue of 2021q4 was 3.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.9%; Excluding the impairment of Evergrande, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 183 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 63%.
The whole packaging business has driven the rapid growth of retail channels, and the proportion of bulk channel revenue has decreased. By channel, the revenue of retail channels (direct sales + distribution) in 2021 was 8.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.3%, accounting for 83.6%; Among them, the revenue from the packaging channel is 529million yuan, which has tripled year-on-year in 2020, entering a period of rapid growth. The revenue of bulk channels in 2021 was 1.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%, accounting for 15.4%. By product, the income of wardrobe and accessories in 2021 was 8.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.4%, accounting for 79.5%; The income of cabinets and accessories was 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.3%, accounting for 13.6%; The revenue of wooden doors was 458 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56.9%, accounting for 4.4%.
Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) customer unit price continued to increase, and the wooden door and Milan NATO store went smoothly. 1) Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) brand: a net increase of 11 to 2730 stores in 2021. In 2021, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) factory’s end-user unit price was 14491 yuan / single (excluding Simi cabinet and wooden door), a year-on-year increase of + 9.63%. With the implementation of the company’s overall strategy, the follow-up customer unit price is expected to maintain a rapid growth. 2) Milanna brand: independent investment promotion began in April 2021. By the end of 2021, it has 360 dealers and 212 stores, and the progress of investment promotion and store expansion is smooth. 3) Simi cabinets: by the end of 2021, there were 929 distributors and 1122 specialty stores (a net increase of 14). The operating revenue of simi subsidiary was 1.153 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.9%. 4) Wooden doors: by the end of 2021, there were 534 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wooden door stores (a net increase of 195) and 804 integrated stores; There are 265 Huahe Mumen stores (a net increase of 22).
The cost of raw materials and reform expenses disturb the short-term profitability and are optimistic about the restoration of profitability in 2022. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin increased from -3.35pp to 33.21% year-on-year, of which the gross profit margins of distribution channels, direct sales channels and bulk channels were -4.08pp, -5.32pp and -2.89pp respectively year-on-year. During 2021, the cost rate increased from + 0.76pp to 20.15% year-on-year; Among them, the sales expense rate + 0.53pp to 9.7%; The management expense rate (including R & D expense rate of 2.79%) was flat year-on-year; The financial expense ratio increased from + 0.23pp to 0.65% year-on-year. The main reasons for the decline of profitability in 2021 are as follows: 1) the cost of raw materials in 2021h2 rises, but the product price has not been adjusted synchronously; 2) The rapid increase of product SKU and the operation of new business division lead to the reduction of production efficiency; 3) The channel reform leads to a high level of short-term sales expenses.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic about the acceleration of retail channel growth under the overall strategy and marketing reform. Considering the rising price of raw materials and slightly reducing the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 2022, we estimate that the net profit attributable to parent company in 20222024 will be 1.41 billion yuan, 1.75 billion yuan and 2.13 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast of 1.49 billion yuan and 1.75 billion yuan in 20222023), corresponding to PE 13, 11 and 9x. We are optimistic about the company’s performance, accelerate the valuation repair and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the investment promotion and opening of stores are not as expected, the price of raw materials rises, and the industry competition intensifies
