\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Key investment points:
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, compared with the same period of the previous year, the company achieved a turnaround from loss to profit: the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 950110 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 196% – 211%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses is 850 million yuan – 1 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 175% – 188%.
Comments:
2022q1 turned losses year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 950 million to RMB 1.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 196% – 211%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is 850 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 175% – 188%. On the basis of the significant expansion of the impact of covid-19 epidemic, the net profit attributable to the parent of 22q1 company turned losses into profits, and the net profit attributable to the parent recovered to 75.22% to 87.09% in the same period in 2019, mainly due to the reduction of the proportion of low gross profit products caused by the company’s adjustment of product structure and the growth of net profit attributable to the parent brought by Kerry Logistics consolidation.
In March, the single ticket income rebounded slightly on a month on month basis. In March 2022, the company’s express logistics business realized a revenue of 12.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.87%; The business volume was 803 million tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 7.91%, and the single ticket income was 15.52 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.24%. It was mainly affected by the large-scale rebound of covid-19 pneumonia cases in China in February and March, and the restriction of express logistics transportation caused by the tightening of epidemic prevention measures. Combined with the confirmation of Hangzhou Shunfeng middle transfer, the business volume decreased slightly. Single ticket revenue rebounded slightly month on month compared with February, or benefited from the optimization of Shunfeng’s product structure, and the gross profit margin is expected to stabilize and recover.
Build a national unified market and ensure the safety of the supply chain. On April 10, 2022, the State Council’s “opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified market” was officially issued, which mentioned optimizing the layout of trade circulation infrastructure; Promote the construction of national logistics hub network and vigorously develop multimodal transport; Support the construction of digital third-party logistics delivery platform and cultivate a number of digital platform enterprises and supply chain enterprises with global influence; Strengthen the construction of emergency logistics system; Develop supply chain finance and provide financial products directly to the business entities in all circulation links. The next day, the notice on ensuring the smooth transportation of freight logistics was issued, which required to make every effort to smooth the traffic and transportation channels, optimize the control measures for epidemic prevention passage, make every effort to organize the transfer of emergency materials, effectively ensure the passage of key materials and postal express, and strengthen the service guarantee of employees. The continuous issuance of documents focuses on ensuring the supply chain system and strengthening the emergency logistics system, which is expected to protect the profitability of supply chain enterprises, and the performance of subsequent supply chain enterprises is expected to pick up.
Investment suggestion: the company turns losses in 2022q1, and the gross profit margin is expected to gradually stabilize after the optimization of product structure. The State Council has continuously issued documents to ensure the supply chain system, and the company’s input capacity is gradually profitable. It is estimated that the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.52 yuan and 1.78 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 32.67 times and 27.79 times respectively. With prominent valuation advantages, the company’s rating will be raised to “recommended”.
Risk warning. Intensified industrial competition, macroeconomic downturn, tightening industrial policies, etc.
