\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
In 2021, the revenue reached the upper limit of advance notice, and the profit was under short-term pressure due to the provision of impairment loss, so the "buy" rating was maintained
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 10.407 billion yuan (+ 24.59%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 123 million yuan (- 89.72%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 32 million yuan (- 96.98%). The growth rate of the revenue side reached the upper limit of the notice, and the profit side fell more, mainly due to the high proportion of Evergrande's credit impairment losses. In 2021q4, the company's revenue is 3.163 billion yuan (- 2.92%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is - 726 million yuan (- 246.66%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is - 759 million yuan (- 263%). Considering the repeated impact of the epidemic on offline passenger flow and store renovation, the profit forecast was lowered and the profit forecast for 2024 was added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.4181643/1.920 billion yuan (originally 1.563/1.864 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023), the corresponding EPS will be 1.55/1.80/2.10 yuan, and the current share price will be 13.1/11.3/9.7 times that of PE. We are optimistic about the internal management, optimize the enabling distribution system, improve the customer unit price and maintain the "buy" rating.
Split Revenue: the growth of wardrobe is accelerated, the growth of cabinet is slowed down under the contraction of Engineering channels, and the performance of packaged channels is bright
(1) split products: in 2021, the revenue of wardrobe / cabinet / wooden door increased by 23.4% / 17.3% / 56.9% respectively. Among them, the increase of wardrobe customer unit price continued to be realized, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% to 14491 yuan / order; Meanwhile, in September 2021, the customers and orders of kangchun board accounted for nearly 90%, and the upgrading of board was gradually completed. Affected by the channel contraction of 2021h2 project, the growth rate of cabinets slowed down, and the revenue of 2021h2 decreased by 10.3% year-on-year. Wooden doors continue to grow high. (2) Split channels: in 2021, the distribution channel revenue was 8.36 billion yuan (+ 27.4%), and the project channel revenue was 1.604 billion yuan (+ 6.64%). According to our calculation, the project channel revenue in 2021q4 decreased by about 43%, mainly due to the decline of the real estate market and the termination of cooperation between the company and important real estate customers. In 2021, the revenue of the whole decoration / home decoration channel (cooperative decoration enterprises of the company's dealers + directly signed decoration enterprises of the company) was 529 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 613%.
The rise of raw material price + the increase of cost investment, and the profitability is under pressure in the short term
The gross profit margin of the company was 33.2% (- 3.4%) in 2021 and 28.8% (- 5.5%) in 2020q4. The main reasons for the obvious decline of the gross profit margin were: (1) the price of raw materials rose, but the sales price of products was not adjusted at the same time. (2) SKUs of the company's products have increased significantly in a short time. In addition, the superposition of multiple factors such as direct sales and assembly and Milana's operation has led to a reduction in production efficiency. The net profit margin of the company in 2021 was 1.18% (- 13.10%), of which the net profit margin in 2021q4 was - 22.96% (- 38.16pct). If the impact of credit impairment is excluded, the net profit margin of the restoration standard in 2021 is 9.91% (- 4.36pct). Under the background of the decline of gross profit margin and the increase of expense rate, the profitability is under short-term pressure.
Risk tip: the recovery of industry demand, the expansion of new business are less than expected, and the product price adjustment is less than expected.
