\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 195 China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) )
Event event: the China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) with a total of 52% of the registered capital, Zhongmu was originally a China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) holding subsidiary.
Comments: China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) are respectively the leading enterprises in the field of animal protection and pig breeding. They jointly establish subsidiaries. In the later stage, Zhongmu muyuan will invest in the construction of Nanyang production base project, mainly engaged in the production, operation and R & D of Veterinary drugs. The construction period of the project is about two years. The significance of this alliance lies in: 1) China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) the cooperation with large-scale breeding enterprises has gradually expanded from focusing on vaccine products to a full category, and the advantage of two wheel drive is more obvious. The company continues to explore high-quality customers, optimize its structure, fear periodic fluctuations, deeply bind with large customers, and improve growth and certainty; 2) The most efficient breeding enterprises represented by muyuan reflect the improvement of the demand for and attention to chemical drugs. The new GMP certification standard will promote the elimination of backward production capacity. The breeding enterprises will reduce the number of animal protection suppliers in order to control risks and enhance traceability, further forcing the industry to increase moderately. China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) as an enterprise with R & D strength and good customer cooperation foundation, it will usher in a rapid increase in market share.
The downstream aquaculture cost center moves down, the profitability is repaired, and the demand for animal protection products is expected to increase. In the third quarter of 2021, the pig price rebounded after falling to the lowest point. At present, the pig price is about 12.2 yuan / kg, which is still in the bottom consolidation stage. However, the overall price is expected to pick up in the future, and the demand for animal protection will increase accordingly. The special feature of this cycle is that the emergence of African classical swine fever has widened the range of breeding costs, and the cost gap between different breeding subjects can reach 10 yuan / kg. We believe that the core influencing factor of the demand of the animal protection industry is the one-time impact of African swine fever, which has been transformed into the restoration of the profitability of breeding enterprises in the short term. With the structural adjustment of fertile sows, the proportion of high-quality sows increased, the dead Amoy rate decreased, the healthy litter rate, Psy and other indicators increased, and the overall pig breeding cost showed a marginal improvement trend. On the other hand, the development of African classical swine fever vaccine continues to advance. With the variation of classical swine fever virus, its toxicity gradually weakens and its infectivity increases. The subunit inactivated vaccine is weaker. Although the vaccine is less effective, it has higher safety, so it is more likely to be popularized. If it is successfully marketed in the future, the attention and growth of the industry will be further improved.
The company has a comprehensive layout of raw and chemical products, and high-quality products ensure the competitive advantage of the industry. The production capacity of foot-and-mouth disease vaccine and macrolide drugs will be gradually put into use in the future. Steady progress has been made in the policy of "first to fight the rear". In 2025, the market vaccine of compulsory immunization against epidemic diseases will fully replace the vaccine collected by the government. The company has high market recognition of foot-and-mouth disease, and the proportion of its structure will continue to increase in the future. Its core products Oubeijia are type O and type a bivalent inactivated vaccines of foot-and-mouth disease. It has many advantages, such as wide antigen spectrum, international leading technology, international leading production process, high antigen purity and small side reactions. The market feedback is good, In the future, with the continuous improvement of capacity utilization, the new capacity will be released after the construction of phase II project of Lanzhou new plant, and the sales volume will usher in growth. In addition, the penetration improvement of large single products drives the comprehensive layout of multiple products, including vaccines and combined vaccines for swine fever, pig ring, pseudorabies and other diseases, and the product combination improves the competitive advantage. In the context of the implementation of the new version of GMP, combined with the strategy of downstream aquaculture enterprises to control risks and reduce suppliers of animal protection products, the concentration of chemical medicine industry has been continuously improved, the foundation of the company's Nanjing veterinary biomedical industrial park project has been successfully laid, and the Inner Mongolia Zhongmu macrolide innovation driven industrial quality upgrading project has been launched and implemented, Shengli biology has obtained the export certification of FDA, which shows that the product quality of the company's tylosin is recognized by the world. In the future, macrolide pharmaceutical preparations will usher in the growth of production and marketing, and the advantages of upstream and downstream integration will be more obvious.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.59 yuan, 0.72 yuan and 0.93 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 22 / 18 / 14 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: capacity expansion is less than expected; The product sales were not as good as expected.
